Goldman Sachs: South Korea's exports are expected to exceed trillions of dollars for the whole year; multiple institutions predict global inflation path differentiation under the impact of the Middle East BlockBeats news, on June 24th, Goldman Sachs' latest report pointed out that the AI capital expenditure boom has exceeded expectations in terms of the driving force and duration of South Korea's chip cycle, and the huge trade surplus driven by AI will continue until the end of the year. It is expected that South Korea's exports will exceed $1 trillion for the whole year, and the proportion of current account surplus to GDP will rise to 15%. On the US side, the latest research from the Dallas Federal Reserve shows that oil prices soared to over $120 per barrel this spring, reducing US economic output by about 0.3 percentage points. However, this impact is far lower than the impact of similar oil crises in the 1980s, reflecting that the US economy's resistance to oil price shocks has greatly increased. In terms of the Eurozone, analysts from Dutch International Group pointed out that although the June PMI data still showed a contraction in business activity, the easing of inflationary pressure caused by the cooling of energy prices was encouraging, and the growth rate of input costs in both manufacturing and service industries had slowed down. The combination of weak growth and diminishing inflation concerns will curb the European Central Bank's willingness to significantly raise interest rates. On the Australian side, Western Pacific Bank maintains the Reserve Bank of Australia's August interest rate hike forecast and warns that the "second round effect" of supply shocks from the Middle East is spreading - rising costs of fuel, transportation, and chemical products have begun to spread to more sectors beyond energy, and the pressure on labor costs may further push up inflation in the second half of 2026. The withdrawal of policy support measures will also prolong inflation risks beyond the August interest rate meeting.