What is the CLARITY Act? Where are we now? The core of the CLARITY Act is to redefine regulation for the US digital asset market. Which assets are under the jurisdiction of the SEC and which are under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, including exchanges, securities firms, custodians, and market makers DeFi、 What rules should developers and stablecoin incentives follow? The CLARITY Act aims to address these issues. So the significance of the CLARITY Act is not just short-term benefits for the cryptocurrency market, but the focus is on the United States preparing to establish a clearer regulatory direction for the digital asset market. In July 2025, the House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act with 294 votes to 134. This vote count is very important because at that time, in addition to Republican support, many Democratic lawmakers also voted in favor, indicating that a strong bipartisan foundation has been formed at the level of the House of Representatives. In January 2026, the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced a version related to the regulation of digital commodities by the CFTC, mainly addressing issues of digital commodity spot markets, trading intermediaries, customer asset segregation, consumer protection, and CFTC authority. In May 2026, the Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act with 15 votes to 9, and the bill was subsequently put on the Senate legislative agenda on June 1. At present, the CLARITY Act has advanced to the forefront of the full Senate proceedings. The next issues that need to be addressed are Senate floor time, 60 vote threshold, integration of two committee versions, whether the House of Representatives accepts the Senate revised version, and finally the President's signature. The real challenge lies in the Senate. Many major bills in the US Senate require breaking the 60 vote threshold. The Republican Party itself does not have enough votes, so it must obtain the support of a portion of Democratic senators. Although two Democrats have already voted in favor of the Senate Banking Committee, committee approval does not necessarily mean that the entire House will ultimately approve. What the Democratic Party needs to see now is how to write ethical provisions, anti money laundering provisions, DeFi boundaries, stablecoin benefits, and consumer protection. (Including restrictions on Trump) The first layer of resistance is political and ethical issues. The Democratic Party hopes to add provisions that restrict government officials and their families from profiting from encryption projects, which corresponds to the dispute over the Trump family's encryption business. The Republican Party tends to handle market structure bills and political ethics issues separately, but if the Democratic Party cannot make concessions in this regard, it is difficult to confidently give a full Senate support vote. The second layer of resistance is the conflict of interests between the banking and cryptocurrency industries. The banking industry is most concerned about the returns of stablecoins. The current bill tends to prohibit users from simply holding stablecoins to earn returns similar to deposit interest, but allows certain transaction rewards, activity rewards, and usage scenario incentives. The banking industry believes that this will become a disguised form of deposit taking, especially harming community banks and traditional deposit systems. The cryptocurrency industry hopes to retain platform incentive space, as it is an important tool for stablecoin expansion, wallet growth, and payment scenario promotion. The third layer of resistance is DeFi and developer protection. The encryption industry hopes to exclude true non custodial protocols, open source software, front-end tools, and developers from traditional financial intermediary regulation. Regulators and some Democratic lawmakers are concerned that the exemptions are too broad, leaving room for money laundering, sanctions evasion, illegal financing, and fraud. The most difficult part here is the boundary. Who only writes code, who actually controls the protocol, who charges fees, who can change rules, and who should bear compliance responsibilities, these issues are not so easy to solve in one sentence. The fourth layer of resistance is time. The prediction website has lowered the probability of passing the CLARITY Act in 2026 from 75% to 60%, mainly due to the decreasing number of available working days in the Senate. The bill requires full Senate debate, revisions, integration with the Agriculture Committee version, and may also require the House of Representatives to re accept the Senate version. This process is very tight in a midterm election year. So the really important time window now is July. If the Senate Majority Leader gives a clear floor time in July and a few moderate Democratic senators send signals of support, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year will significantly increase. The ideal path is to complete the full Senate review in July, address the version differences between the two houses before the August recess, and then send them to the President. If there is no schedule in July, or if ethical clauses, stablecoin returns, and DeFi exemptions continue to get stuck, the probability of passing this year will rapidly decrease. Because after August is the pace of midterm elections, when lawmakers return to their home states to campaign, Senate floor time will become even scarcer, and the difficulty of advancing major bills will significantly increase. So my assessment of the CLARITY Act is that there is still a chance to pass it this year, but the probability is not high. My personal assessment is that it will probably pass by around 60% in 2026. Bitget is here, VIP! Crypto、 US shares CFD， Global Advantage One Stop Layout