Dr. Moyu|摸鱼局长
Dr. Moyu|摸鱼局长|Jun 23, 2026 14:49
Today, technology stocks suddenly cooled down, with Korean semiconductor stocks falling particularly hard, and KOSPI triggering circuit breakers at one point I don't think this matter needs to be too complicated. It's not necessarily the end of the AI market, but more like the market suddenly stepping on the brake after rising too fast earlier The AI and semiconductor industries were indeed too strong before, with a serious accumulation of profit taking positions. As long as there is a slight external movement, funds are easily withdrawn from these popular directions first The Korean stock market has fallen sharply this time, and the reasons for this are obvious: On one hand, the hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve are heating up, and institutions such as BofA suddenly push the narrative of "three interest rate hikes". The market is beginning to worry that interest rate cuts may not be so fast, putting pressure on the valuation of technology stocks But this narrative lacks new macro data support (important data was only available on Thursday), and the CME futures market still shows a probability of about 74% of not raising interest rates in July. Institutions themselves are not predicting market heavy short positions, indicating that sellers are feeding "junk information" to retail investors On the other hand, the leverage of the Korean market itself is not low. Retail investors enter the market in large numbers through leveraged ETFs (especially those related to Samsung and SK Hynix), pushing up quickly when they rise and easily trampling on each other when they fall In addition, discussions on tax reform, tightened regulation of leveraged ETFs, and sales of pension funds and foreign investment have combined to amplify this correction But I don't think the AI mainline has broken down The data centers of major factories are still under construction, and the demand for model training has not stopped. The logic of chip, memory, and server orders is still ongoing. As long as there is no significant deterioration in orders and no sudden halt in capital expenditures, the fundamentals of the industry remain unchanged As the White Haired Stock God said, core targets such as MU, INTC, TSM, this pullback may actually be a clear buying opportunity Next, I will focus on observing a few things: -Have the orders and guidelines of AI related companies deteriorated -Has the capital expenditure of large factories slowed down -Will the Federal Reserve continue to hawk (Thursday data is key) -Will South Korea's tax reform and leveraged ETF regulation continue to ferment If there is no substantial deterioration in these, then this time it is more like a correction in terms of funds and emotions, rather than the end of the trend My opinion is not to chase high in the short term, as there will definitely be significant fluctuations. But there is no need to completely negate the long-term logic just because of a one-day sharp decline. You can consider buying on dips, DYOR
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