币圈荒木|Araki🪵|Jun 23, 2026 14:28
I stared at the 12% bearish candlestick of Hynix for quite some time. I didn't bring a Hercules. We have DRAM and MRVL, and 80% of them have to go with us at the opening tonight. South Korea experienced two circuit breakers during trading yesterday, with KOSPI closing down nearly 10% and Samsung Hynix both falling below 12%.
MU is currently around 1107 and is growing almost three times this year. The implied volatility of options for this financial report subject is 17%. Tomorrow's opening, a unilateral 17% increase is considered normal.
I don't know much about Micron. I am too familiar with the game of betting on a catalyst throughout the game. The most tragic time was when I filled up my warehouse two weeks in advance, and the data was exposed clearly, even believing myself. The financial report came out, and the numbers exceeded expectations, with a drop of 15%. That time I finally realized that if the price rose to the point where all the good news was included in the price, it would be bearish if it met my expectations.
Micron is currently in this position. Our production capacity is sold out, our technology is leading, and the demand for AI never sleeps. The story has reached its peak. The more you talk, the smaller the gap left beyond expectations. EPS for the same period last year was 1.91, and this quarter it is expected to reach 20 yuan, with a revenue increase of 282%. These markets are all known.
What really hasn't been revealed is how the management will speak about the next quarter. Saying that the tension will last until after 2026, to be vague, is a loophole. Whether the contract prices of HBM, DRAM, and NAND continue to rise or not, we have to listen. If they don't rise, the story will slide from price increases to volume increases.
The most common mistake I make before a financial report is digging through a bunch of previews, feeling like I understand everything, and rushing in the last hour. The number 17% is something that the market can tell you with real money that it's hard to predict. Why do you think you're accurate.
The two circuit breakers in Asia have already written half of the script for Micron's soft guidance. I still have DRAM. Not moving tonight. In addition, SPCX has already fallen to its opening price on the first day, so I placed a bottom position and waited for the IPO pricing to replenish my long-term position. After buying it, it won't move anymore
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