When will the US stock market crash? Why does it keep rising? The US stock market is not without danger now. But it's not yet the time to 'collapse'. It keeps rising, with three core things: AI capital expenditures, global fund siphoning, interest rate cuts/easing expectations. The real risk now is not 'rising too much', but: The valuation is already very expensive, but the market still believes that future profits can continue to be realized. The biggest contradiction in the current market is that the valuation of US stocks is relatively tight compared to US bond yields, and the attractiveness gap between stock yields and 10-year US bonds is near a decade low; At the same time, the Fed's latest dot matrix also shows that there is increasing divergence on the path of interest rates, and the market's certainty about easing is not as strong. I think the real potential for problems in the US stock market depends on three signals: Firstly, AI capital expenditures have peaked. As long as Nvidia, Microsoft Meta、 Amazon and other giants are still investing in AI, while the main focus of the US stock market is still ongoing. But once the market finds that the return on investment in AI falls short of expectations, the valuation will be repriced. Secondly, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds continues to rise. If the 10-year US Treasury bond remains at a high level for a long time, or even continues to rise, the stock valuation will be repeatedly compressed. The recent 10-year US Treasury bonds are still in the range of over 4%, indicating that risk assets are not cheap. Thirdly, Buffett's cash continues to reach new highs. Berkshire Hathaway's cash and short-term bond size has reached historical highs, and the market may not listen to opinions, but it cannot ignore the behavior of top long-term funds. In the short term, the US stock market is more like a high-level oscillation than an immediate collapse. The real major risk is more likely to occur from the second half of 2026 to 2027. Not because I can predict when it will collapse. But the cycle usually goes like this: Firstly, the valuation is expensive, Then the funds continued to stick together, And then everyone believed that 'this time is different', Finally, only one variable is needed to falsify, and the market will reprice. For BTC, if the US stock market crashes, BTC is likely to follow suit first, but later it depends on liquidity. If the decline in the US stock market forces the Fed to loosen again, it may actually become the starting point for BTC's next real acceleration.