Today, the South Korean stock market experienced a sharp decline, and the US stock market also experienced a significant drop before the market opened. The surface trigger is the rumor of South Korean tax reform, and the driving logic lies in the tweet on Sunday that from late June to early July, there were five lines simultaneously affecting the market: WashFed repricing; The possibility of an upward breakthrough in the US dollar index; Quarter end pension rebalancing and CTA mechanical flow; AI token economic audit; The Ministry of Finance will rebuild TGA and issue bonds to extract funds. Of course, more fundamentally, the market we discussed two days ago has a small issue: current positions, valuations, and expectations are not low, and the market's tolerance for negative information has significantly decreased. Walsh's debut changed the market's comfort with the Fed On the 18th, with Walsh's debut, the Fed shifted from a "biased interest rate cut" to a "two-way risk", and even faced tail risk of interest rate hikes, causing the market to reprice short-term interest rates. Before the market is fully certain that the trend of inflation rebound has begun to reverse downwards, there will still be concerns in the market. What is the real trend of inflation after worrying about acceleration first? The breaking of the US dollar index is a new pressure item, and it is in the same direction as the Fed's repricing. The impact of the strengthening of the US dollar on the US stock market is reflected in several aspects: suppressing risk appetite, causing damage to the overseas revenue conversion of multinational corporations, and directly suppressing the overvaluation process. If the US dollar index breaks through, it will naturally put pressure on risk assets in the short term. Yesterday, the US dollar index clearly broke through upwards. Did we also chat here last night about https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2069098133448224809? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A The AI mainline is strong, and the third and fourth mainlines have not yet had an impact. These two mainlines are: Quarter end pension rebalancing and CTA mechanical flow; AI token economic audit; If we start adjusting these two lines, it will also have an effect. For specific recommendations, please refer to the detailed logic in the tweet from the day before yesterday