Wintermute: Short term risk assets may maintain a volatile trend, with buying still not showing a significant rebound BlockBeats News: On June 23rd, Wintermute issued a statement stating that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50% -3.75% this month, but released a clear hawkish signal. The latest dot plot has shifted from implying a rate cut to implying a rate hike, with the median interest rate forecast for 2026 rising from 3.4% to 3.8%. Out of 18 officials, 9 are expected to raise interest rates at least once this year, while 17 believe that inflation risks are biased towards an upward trend. The market immediately adjusted its expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in December increased from 24% a month ago to 77%, indicating that the Federal Reserve is putting anti inflation back at the core of its policy. In terms of geopolitics, the Iran deal originally scheduled to be signed on June 19th unexpectedly stalled. After Israel attacked southern Lebanon, Iran withdrew from negotiations and the signing ceremony was forced to be postponed. The rise in the US stock market and the fall in oil prices were largely based on expectations of a deal being reached, and now the market needs to reassess the geopolitical risk premium that had previously subsided. The cryptocurrency market was the first to complete risk repricing. Although Strategy disclosed an increase of 1587 BTC holdings, easing market concerns about its sell-off, Wintermute believes that ETFs and institutional buying have not yet shown a significant rebound. In the short term, market attention will shift towards US PCE data and progress in Middle East negotiations. Risk assets may continue to fluctuate until liquidity improves. [Original link]