Wintermute says hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks lead to market repricing

Wintermute stated that the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.50% -3.75% and sends a hawkish signal, with the median rate forecast for 2026 rising to 3.8% and the probability of a rate hike in December increasing to 77%. The suspension of the Iran deal has led to a reassessment of the geopolitical risk premium in the market. Although Strategy increased its holdings of 1587 BTC, Wintermute believes that ETFs and institutional buying have not shown a significant rebound, and short-term risk assets may remain volatile. AI interpretation: The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged and sends hawkish signals, directly breaking the market's illusion of loose policies. The upward adjustment of the median interest rate forecast has clarified the policy tone of extending the tightening cycle. The significant increase in the probability of interest rate hikes has forced the capital market to reassess the pressure of liquidity tightening. This decision-making path reinforces the persistence of the high interest rate environment and poses a sustained valuation pressure on risk assets.