RamenPanda
RamenPanda|Jun 23, 2026 07:30
Micron (MU) will release its financial results for the third quarter of FY2026 (ending at the end of May) after market hours on June 24th. The following is a summary of predictions and discussions from various institutions. Consistent Expectations vs. Company Guidelines The company's guidance for March was revenue of $33.5 billion ± 750 million, gross profit margin of~81%, and Non GAAP EPS of $19.15 ± 0.40. The market generally expects EPS to be around $19.7-20 and revenue to be around $34.3-34.7 billion. It is worth noting that the revenue forecast range ranges from approximately 33.7 billion to 40.9 billion US dollars, spanning over 7 billion US dollars, reflecting a real divergence in the pace of AI memory demand. Looking at the whole year, analysts expect the EPS for FY2026 to be around $57.7 (+651% YoY), further increasing to around $97.8 in FY2027. Strong bullish camp: •Susquehanna 1, 750 (the highest on the entire street) •America(Arcuri)1,625 •Cantor(C.J. Muse)1,500 ,Deutsche Bank、TD Cowen 1,500 More neutral: •RBC 1,200 ; Raymond James、HSBC、Melius 1,100; Morgan Stanley 1,050 Multi head core logic The bull market argument no longer relies on "cycles", but on structural reassessment: America believes that Micron has signed long-term volume price agreements (LTAs) with the vast majority of its core clients, locking in multi-year revenue and marking a fundamental shift in its business model from traditional cyclical stocks to growth technology stocks. On the supply side, Goldman Sachs estimates that the DRAM supply and demand gap will reach 4.9% in 2026, the most severe shortage in 15 years. In terms of HBM, Micron's HBM production capacity for the whole year of 2026 and early 2027 has been fully booked by customers, and the production ramp up speed of HBM4 is twice that of the previous generation HBM3. Key highlights on the day of the financial report 1. Can the gross profit margin be maintained at 81% - at 81% or above, the pricing power argument is valid; If it falls below 80%, the gap between valuation and fair value will be difficult to justify. 2. New Growth Term Supply Agreement (SCA/LTA) - Whether to publish the second and third named agreements outside the initial 5-year agreement is key to turning America's structural reassessment from "possible" to "probable". Visibility of HBM supply and production progress of HBM4 in 2027 (docking with Nvidia Vera Rubin). Q4 guidance and FY2027 capital expenditure - FY2026 capital expenditure has been raised to over $25 billion, and FY2027 will see a significant increase.
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