BitUnix analyst: High interest rates are replacing war as the new pricing core in the market BlockBeats News: On June 23rd, a significant change began to emerge in the global market: geopolitical risks still exist, but the dominance of asset prices is gradually returning to the hands of monetary policy and liquidity environment. The technical talks between the United States and Iran have officially started in Switzerland. The United States has simultaneously issued a 60 day temporary permit allowing Iran to resume oil sales. Both sides have also made progress on the passage mechanism of the Strait of Hormuz and the unfreezing of some assets. The market's concerns about energy supply disruptions continue to decline, and Qatar has confirmed that the natural gas plant explosion is only an industrial accident and does not affect LNG exports, further strengthening the expectation of supply recovery. However, the focus of market attention has gradually shifted towards the Federal Reserve. The impact of Walsh's first meeting after taking office is still fermenting, and the latest report from Bank of America even predicts that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates three times this year, accumulating 75 basis points. At the same time, the reform within the Federal Reserve to reduce forward guidance has gained more official support, and the market is beginning to accept a new environment of reduced transparency and increased volatility in future monetary policy. This repricing has been first reflected in global asset markets. The US dollar remains strong, and the Japanese yen has fluctuated sharply after approaching historical lows again. The urgent communication between Japan and the US Treasury also shows that exchange rate risks are heating up. On the other hand, overvalued growth assets are beginning to face pressure. SpaceX has fallen for the third consecutive trading day, with a significant drop in its high market value, reflecting that when the market begins to recalculate the cost of capital, forward growth stories no longer enjoy the valuation premium of the past. For the cryptocurrency market, this represents a shift in the sources of risk. In the past few weeks, the market has mainly traded on war, energy, and shipping risks; Now, as the situation in the Middle East gradually enters the negotiation framework, the market is refocusing on US dollar liquidity, US bond yields, and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies. If the expectation of interest rate hikes continues to rise, funds will be more inclined to flow towards the US dollar and high-yield fixed income assets, and the cryptocurrency market still needs to wait for new turning signals in the liquidity environment to attract incremental funds again. In the short term, the cooling of risks in the Middle East will help to suppress energy prices, but what truly affects the performance of risk assets in the next stage is no longer whether the Strait of Hormuz is open, but whether the market begins to believe that the Federal Reserve will once again enter a cycle of interest rate hikes. This also means that the core of market volatility in the coming weeks will gradually shift from geopolitics to inflation data, employment data, and the Federal Reserve's policy signals themselves.