SpaceX’s unlock doesn’t follow the traditional one-size-fits-all 180-day lock-up period. Instead, it’s designed with a staggered release mechanism (Staggered Release). This avoids a scenario where tens of billions worth of shares crash the market on a single day, but the trade-off is a prolonged supply overhang in the secondary market from mid-August to the end of the year. The unlock is divided into the following phases: - **Extreme Vacuum Period (Now - Mid-July):** The actual circulating supply is still less than 5%. All the current crashes and rallies are just existing funds battling it out in an extremely illiquid pool, making technical indicators almost meaningless. - **First Wave of Flood Release (End of July, Q2 Earnings Report):** Circulating supply will instantly double. For IPO investors who didn’t cash out early, this will be the first real test of a liquidity crunch. - **Death by a Thousand Cuts (August - October):** The staggered release of 7% of insider shares every two weeks from Phase 2 to Phase 6 will be torturous for bulls. This is a classic “every rebound faces insider selling pressure” scenario. - **Deep Value Zone (End of October - December):** After the Q3 earnings report (Phase 7), there will be a massive single unlock of 1.3 billion shares, coinciding with the expiration of the 180-day lock-up on December 8. Once the shares are fully shaken out, the true valuation bottom is likely to emerge during these two months. This will be the real target zone for institutional funds to start building long-term positions on the left side of the curve.