pepper 花椒 (赚钱版)|6月 23, 2026 02:10
Bank of America's latest prediction: The Fed might not cut interest rates before 2028.
Analyst Aditya Bhave expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points each in September, October, and December, pushing the policy rate to the 4.25%-4.50% range, and likely keeping it unchanged throughout next year.
The core logic is that inflation remains sticky, and the real policy rate is unlikely to reach a sufficiently restrictive level.
What does this mean for the market? Rate expectations are being significantly pushed back, and the window for rate-cut trades is closing. If Bank of America's prediction comes true, a high-interest-rate environment will become the norm, putting sustained pressure on risk asset valuations.
The market is still digesting this hawkish signal, with short-term sentiment leaning cautious.
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