SPCX drops from 230 to 153: Countdown to lifting ban, this wave is not over yet ❗ ️️ Dear friends, before SpaceX went public, I wrote an article titled 'Warning:' Chasing high risks on the first day is extremely risky, with a 10% chance of failure '. Now SPCX has fallen all the way from $230 to $153, with only $18 left until the issue price of $135. Looking at the stock price trend of SPCX below, it shows a downturn ❗ ️ Looking back, the judgment at that time was basically correct - but the key question is, is $153 the bottom price? My answer is cruel: $153 is highly likely not the bottom price! 1、 How did the price of $153 come about? On the first day of SpaceX's listing, the issue price was $135, and it closed at $161. Within a few days, it surged to around $230, with a market value of $3 trillion. Then within two days, it evaporated over 600 billion yuan in market value, with the core trigger being the $60 billion all stock acquisition of Anysphere, the parent company of AI coding tool Cursor. The logic of using feet to vote in the market is very direct: for an aerospace company, exchanging stocks for an AI company is equivalent to diluting the shares of all shareholders. And this transaction occurred after Michael Burry publicly questioned whether SPCX's valuation could support a $3 trillion trajectory. 2、 153 is highly likely not a logical analysis of the bottom price range The unlocking day is the real test. The core logic emphasized repeatedly in our previous article is that only about 4.2% of the shares can be traded in the initial stage of listing, and the real test will only begin in August. The lifting schedule is clear: 20% -30% will be lifted after the Q2 financial report, with a cumulative lifting of about 35% in five rounds from August to October, and another lifting of about 28% after the Q3 financial report in November. By the end of the year, the circulation ratio may increase from 4.2% to nearly 58%. Low cost chips are queuing up to enter the market - the cost of ownership for early employees and investors is much lower than the issue price of 135. The current price of 153 is still far from their cost. The valuation guidance provided by Oppenheimer Bank is sharp and accurate. Oppenheimer set a target price of 190, outperforming the market, based on a super optimistic scenario of revenue of 900 billion and EBITDA of 500 billion by 2035. CFRA directly gave a selling target price of 115. Morningstar's fair value valuation is only $63- in the most optimistic scenario, it is only $154. The most optimistic institutional valuation is $154, while the current stock price is $153. The market has already realized the most optimistic scenario ahead of schedule. The increase in circulation of SPCX will change the pricing logic. When the circulating stocks expand from 4% to nearly 60%, the supply-demand relationship will undergo a fundamental reversal. The 'scarcity premium' of low flow is disappearing, replaced by a 'supply digestion period'. From the market reaction, it can be seen that the 60 billion yuan AI acquisition has resulted in a market value of 600 billion yuan, indicating that the market has a low tolerance for management to use stocks to buy companies. If the Q2 financial report (expected in August) falls short of expectations, coupled with the lifting of restrictions, 153 may not be able to hold on at all. 3、 Prediction of the follow-up trend of SPCX stock Scenario one, bottoming out and rebounding, with a price range of 140 to 160, with a probability of about 30%. The core logic is that the Q2 financial report exceeded expectations, and at the same time, the company announced a repurchase plan to boost market confidence. Scenario 2, sideways digestion, price range of 120 to 155, with a probability of about 45%. The market is waiting for the Q2 financial report results, with range fluctuations and unclear direction. Scenario three, a deep drop in price range of 100 to 135, with a probability of about 25%. Q2 financial report falls short of expectations, coupled with the concentrated release of lifting restrictions and selling pressure, the stock price may fall below the issue price. Core prediction: 153 is unlikely to be the bottom. The downside risk is greater than the upside potential, and the short-term support is around 140, close to the issue price; The next line of defense is at 120. 4、 The strategic advice I provided. (1) For those who haven't entered yet: waiting for Q2 financial report. If the financial report is strong and the lifting rules are clear, we will look at the 120-135 range again. (2) The trapped person: If the position is heavy, consider reducing the position after rebounding to 155-165, and wait until the lifting of the ban is clear before considering. (3) People who want to short: Consider approaching the 160-170 range, but borrowing costs may be high, so be aware of the risk of being forced short. Finally, I would like to summarize in one sentence: 230 is the top price set by FOMO, and 153 is the price after emotional digestion, but the real test is in August. When the first batch of low-cost chips can be sold, the market will tell you how much this company is worth. The Q2 financial report and the unlocking window are the real test rooms. SPCX US Stock Exchange