Grayscale: If the Federal Reserve suspends interest rate hikes, Bitcoin may experience an increase BlockBeats News: On June 23rd, Zach Pandl, the head of Grayscale Research, stated in a post that if the Federal Reserve suspends interest rate hikes, Bitcoin may experience an increase. Since the start of the Iran War at the end of February, US stocks have risen 9%, Bitcoin has fallen 1%, and gold has fallen 20%. Despite significant AI related spending supporting the stock market, Bitcoin and gold have lagged behind, partly due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates to address inflation. Grayscale does not agree with this expectation, and the basic scenario is that the Federal Reserve will temporarily suspend interest rate hikes. If the judgment is correct, the price of Bitcoin may catch up with the performance of stocks. Zach Pandl stated that since the start of the Iran War, the one-year Federal Reserve interest rate expectation has increased by about 60 basis points, and about half of Federal Reserve officials believe that a rate hike in 2026 may be appropriate. The European Central Bank has raised interest rates. As non interest generating monetary assets, gold and Bitcoin compete with fiat currency, and an increase in the real interest rate of fiat currency will increase the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and gold, thereby suppressing demand. Bitcoin has a dual purpose in investment portfolios: on the one hand, it is a scarce digital commodity that can serve as a long-term store of value; On the other hand, public chain assets can provide exposure to the long-term growth of the cryptocurrency industry. Therefore, the function of Bitcoin in investment portfolios is similar but not entirely equivalent to that of gold and growth stocks. Zach Pandl said that if the possibility of interest rate hikes decreases, which is in line with the gray basic scenario, Bitcoin may catch up with stock performance. [Original link]