金十数据
金十数据|Jun 23, 2026 00:44
[Morgan Stanley: Liquidity Tightening is the Real Threat Facing U.S. Stocks Recently] Jin10 Data, June 23 – Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson stated that despite the weakening stock market and flattening yield curve, last week's FOMC meeting led by Federal Reserve Chair Waller was a good and necessary first step in rebuilding the Fed's credibility. Wilson noted that since Waller was nominated in February, the ratio of the S&P 500 Index to gold has risen nearly 40%, which he believes is a strong vote of confidence from the market in the new chair's ability to restore policy discipline. Morgan Stanley strategists pointed out that liquidity, rather than interest rate hikes, is the primary risk facing the stock market recently. He mentioned that the scale of the reserve management program has dropped by approximately 75% from its peak, and the size of Treasury repos has also been reduced by 50%. Wilson warned that accelerated loan growth exacerbates liquidity tightening, as the real economy absorbs more capital while balance sheet support diminishes. He predicts that U.S. stock market movements in July will be volatile and may experience a pullback, with the next round of earnings-driven bull market gains delayed until liquidity resistance is eliminated. Wilson also expressed support for Waller's approach to reducing excessive forward guidance, stating that the market should react to newly released data rather than attempting to predict the Fed's statements.
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