What is BTC grinding at 65K? Super Whale is still buying, but this week is the real exam venue Brothers and sisters, BTC has shrunk to 65150 in the past two days, which is nearly 3000 points. Multi headed sneak attacks, it looks quite lively. But upon closer inspection, the volume is still soft and steady, with prices slowly rising. It's not that the bulls are strong, but rather that the bears have temporarily stopped trading and stopped. Short positions can be quite sluggish. Previously, I overlooked the data on the behavior of whales and long-term holders continuously raising funds above 60000, which led to some short-term misjudgments. However, today I have identified and filled in the gaps, reorganized the structure of market actors, and upgraded and optimized the three-dimensional trading system. This week is the real test room - four variables stacked together, the short-term direction of Bitcoin is right in front of us, and the direction of the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged. 1. Market status: Still rising, but virtual. The price increased from 62200 to 65800, which is 3600 points. But on the 4-hour chart, the trading volume of this rebound is far worse than when it hit the market before. According to BitMart's data, BTC is still hovering in the range of 63000-65000, and its ability to take proactive actions is not strong. The funding rate dropped from 0.003985 to 0.000337, and a large wave of long leverage was cleared. The current problem is that the bears have temporarily stopped selling, but the bulls have not dared to launch a large-scale attack. A bear flag pattern has emerged at the daily level. My point of view is very direct - the target of the bear flag is around 55000, and the deeper bottom is between 40000 and 45000. Believe it or not, this pattern and the bottom price of this bear market at least indicate that the technical side has not yet reached the point of 'reversal'. 2. Super whales are buying, this signal is very important. Strategy bought another 520 BTC last week, with an average price of about $67068, spending $35 million. This is the third consecutive week of increasing holdings. I currently hold a total of 847363 BTC with a floating loss of approximately 9 billion US dollars, and I am still buying. What does it mean? It tells the market in real gold and silver: around 65000, I am still receiving. This is the toughest card for bulls and one of the core reasons why 65K can hold up this week. But the other side of the coin is that mNAV has dropped to around 1.14 times, directly halving from its peak of 2.4 times. If the premium continues to disappear, the arbitrage logic of financing to buy coins will no longer hold. If the financing pace of the micro strategy slows down or stops further, the market's expectation of "Strategy will continue to buy" will amplify market volatility once reversed. 3. This week, there are four variables, any of which can break through the market. The first one is quarterly settlement on June 26th. Approximately $13 billion worth of options have expired, with a bearish structure dominating. The real Greece data in the market points to $60000 as the key psychological and technical support. If it falls below, market makers' hedging will shift from bottoming out to hitting the market. The second one: PCE data (Thursday). The market expects the core PCE to rise from 3.3% to 3.4%. If it exceeds expectations, the expectation of interest rate hikes will be further strengthened. The market has now fully priced a rate hike in October, with a 78% probability of a rate hike in December. Once it exceeds expectations, Bitcoin will come under direct pressure. The third one: ETFs are still running. For the sixth consecutive week, there was a net outflow of 6.35 billion, setting a historical record for 30 days. BlackRock IBIT reduced its holdings of over 1000 BTC on a single trading day on June 19th. Fourth: Uncertainty in US Iran negotiations. The benefits of a ceasefire have switched to a "high-risk negotiation" mode. Iran may release new news at any time, and the marginal driving force of the geopolitical card on BTC is already weak, but if there is a bearish trend, it will accelerate the decline. 4. On chain data: The bottom structure is incomplete, and the final cut is still needed. It is a fact that ETFs are withdrawing, but it is also a fact that super whales, whales, and long-term holders are continuing. Two forces are trading chips in the range of 60000-65000. From the perspective of net flow direction: In the past 7 days, Giant Whale has increased its holdings by approximately 700 million US dollars ETF outflow of approximately 227 million US dollars in the past 7 days Strategy increases holdings by approximately $35 million per day Net inflow is positive (Whale's increase in holdings>ETF outflow) The supply of long-term holders is about 12.17 million, which has doubled in the past year, indicating that chips are shifting from short-term traders to long-term holders. This is a bottoming feature. But the selling pressure indicator has not shown any signal for 1256 days, the longest period of silence in history. At the bottom of 2015, 2018, and 2022, this indicator triggered peak selling pressures of 15% -32%. It hasn't appeared yet. The pendulum of net flow is shifting from one-way outflow of ETFs to two-way turnover. The rebound around 65000 is supported by buying from whales and LTH, but the historical hold up around 68000 remains the ceiling. There is a high probability that 60000 will still be worn during the third test, but the timing has been pushed back by these buying forces. The market presents an 'incomplete bottom structure'. There are features of bottoming out, but we still lack the final blow of surrender. 5. Trading strategy: Watch more and move less this week, wait for the exam results. 65150 is still 1800-2800 points away from the resistance zone of 67000-68000, but these 1800 points are not given for free. Moving around before reaching the entrance of the examination room is equivalent to being beaten. Continue holding the empty order of 65268, set the stop loss for moving. 67000-68000 is the core area of the warehouse, where a 4-hour long shadow or solid bearish line appears when the trigger is pulled. Stop loss 68500, target 60000-61000. 6. Finally, let me say: This week, four variables are stacked together, and any one of them could pull BTC out of the oscillation range of 65000. Quarterly settlement on Wednesday, PCE on Thursday, ETF running but whales catching up - the two forces are changing hands around 65K, whoever can't hold on first, the direction will come out. There is a high probability that the third test of 60000 will still come, but the timing has been pushed back by Strategy and Whale's buying. 65000 and 68000 are not the finish line, they are just rest stops. Which side is the gatekeeper on for this week's exam. Bitcoin BTC 3D Integrated Trading Analysis