This round of bitcoin:native rebounded from 63,200 to 64,700. I’d rather define it as an oversold recovery than the start of a new upward trend. 4H chart shows a higher low, but 64,800–65,200 is the previous breakdown zone. If it doesn’t hold above this level, the rebound still risks a secondary pullback. As for U.S. stocks, QQQ quickly recovered from 722 to 740 last week, but U.S. stock futures weakened today, indicating that risk appetite hasn’t formed a stable one-sided trend. The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, with policy expectations leaning hawkish. Thursday’s PCE data will determine the direction of the dollar, interest rates, and risk assets. ETF flows haven’t confirmed either. On June 19, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately $82.2 million, suggesting that the current rally isn’t driven by institutional inflows. Contract positions are mostly flat, and funding rates have moderately turned positive. This looks more like short covering combined with short-term buying rather than leveraged funds going all-in long. Holding above 65,200, watch for 66,500–67,200 Breaking through 67,200, then watch for 68,800–70,000 Dropping below 64,000, retest 63,200–62,200 This week, we can expect the rebound to continue, but it’s too early to define it as a reversal. A true bullish signal would be BTC holding above 67,200, alongside a strong Nasdaq and positive ETF flows.