Analyst: Bitcoin shows a supply structure similar to the bottom of the cycle, but key selling pressure indicators have not yet shown a bottom signal BlockBeats news, on June 22nd, crypto market analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that on chain data shows that the Bitcoin market is experiencing a supply structure similar to a cyclical bottom, but a key surrender indicator has not yet been confirmed that a bottom has formed. Long term holders have realized that the supply is increasing. This indicator measures the total realized supply entering the long-term holder group, which has historically risen rapidly near the bottom of the cycle. The current indicator is about 12.17 million, which rose to a local high of 12.42 million in early June. Despite a slight decline afterwards, the year-on-year growth remained strong. In the past year, this indicator has more than doubled, indicating that more and more chips are shifting from short-term traders to more stable long-term holders. This change is often seen as a sign of increased market resilience. The increase in long-term holder supply means that more bitcoins are exiting active circulation, and the potential for selling pressure is decreasing, indicating that the market is experiencing chip accumulation. But the problem is that this indicator has not yet reached the level near the bottom of past bear markets. Near the bottom of 2015, long-term holders have achieved a supply of approximately 15 million pieces; At the bottom of 2018-19, there were approximately 16 million pieces; At the bottom of 2022-23, it will be close to 19.7 million pieces. In contrast, although the current 12.17 million pieces are in the right direction, there is still a gap from the historical bottom confirmation interval. The greater divergence comes from the selling pressure indicator. This indicator will only be activated when the overall market is in a loss state, that is, when NUPL is negative, and measures the realized loss pressure by the degree of deviation from SOPR to 1. In other words, it captures the moment when the market truly enters the stage of pressure release, loss selling, and surrender. At present, this indicator has not shown any signal for 1256 days, which is the longest quiet period in the history of Bitcoin. The last signal appeared on January 13, 2023, which was the end of the previous bear market. In the past few bottom rounds, including 2015, 2018-19, 2020, and 2022, there have been intensive selling pressure signals, with peaks typically ranging from 15% to nearly 32%. At the bottom of the cycle in December 2018, this indicator reached a historical high of about 32%. Therefore, the current market presents an incomplete bottom structure: the supply side is maturing, long-term holders are absorbing chips, but the surrender side has not given confirmation. The market looks more like it is in the stage of holding, settling, and chip redistribution, rather than the classic cycle bottom where the final pressure release has been completed. The conclusion is that Bitcoin does have some "bottoming out" features, but it still lacks the most critical link in the historical cycle: the final surrender signal brought by loss selling. A stronger confirmation may require one of two conditions to occur: the long-term holder has achieved a further increase in supply to over 15 million pieces, or the selling pressure indicator has restarted, indicating that the market has experienced a real release of pressure. [Original link]