BitUnix analyst: From forward guidance to policy fog, the Walsh era officially begins global volatility reassessment According to BlockBeats, on June 22nd, the core focus of the global market has gradually shifted from the Middle East conflict itself to monetary policy and liquidity reassessment. Although there has been some progress in the talks between the United States and Iran in Switzerland, with both sides agreeing to establish a high-level political oversight committee and develop a 60 day final agreement roadmap, the Strait of Hormuz has not fully resumed normal operations, and there are still significant differences between Iran and the United States on the Lebanon issue and exemptions to oil sanctions. Geopolitical risks have not been completely eliminated. The energy market is beginning to reflect expectations of supply recovery. Libya's crude oil production has risen to a new high since 2013, Iraq plans to gradually restore pre conflict production capacity, and Qatar has also started preparations to restart LNG exports. The market is reassessing the impact of the recovery of the Middle East supply chain on global energy prices and inflation paths, as supply shocks previously caused by war are gradually being replaced by supply returns. However, it is the Federal Reserve's policy shift that truly dominates market pricing. The interest rate market has fully anticipated a 25 basis point rate hike in September, and Goldman Sachs has simultaneously lowered its gold target price and expects no rate cuts within the year. Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh continues to push for the weakening of forward guidance and dot matrix mechanisms, leading to a significant increase in market uncertainty regarding policy paths. From the continuous rise in the yield of US treasury bond bonds, the strength of the US dollar index, to the large-scale closing of positions in the global arbitrage trade, it shows that funds are returning to the US dollar system. At the same time, after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, although the Japanese government expressed support for policy normalization, the market has begun to pay attention to the potential for further interest rate hikes and the risk of yen intervention. The Japanese Ministry of Finance's public warning to take action against foreign exchange speculation also reflects that major central banks around the world are gradually entering a more tightening policy environment. For the cryptocurrency market, the biggest variable currently is no longer the situation in the Middle East, but the liquidity pressure brought about by the continuous rise in global capital costs. Although the decrease in energy risks helps alleviate inflation concerns, the strengthening of the US dollar, the rise in US bond yields, and the increasing expectation of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will continue to suppress the valuation of risk assets. When the market starts trading for 'longer periods of high interest rates' or even' another rate hike ', the key to the cryptocurrency market has shifted from geopolitical events to whether there will be new sources of incremental liquidity.