Things to know before Monday's opening - The Strait of Hormuz is closed, what do you think about this week The most important thing that happened on the weekend Iran officially confirms that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed to all ships. Iran claims that this is the first step of retaliation against the United States and Israel for violating previous agreements. Trump issued an extremely severe warning to Iran, saying that if the Straits are closed, "you will no longer exist". Affected by this threat, the Iranian delegation, which was conducting historic face-to-face negotiations between the United States and Iran in Switzerland, angrily left and refused to take a photo with the US. Less than 24 hours after the signing of the US Iran agreement, Israel launched fierce airstrikes and military operations in southern Lebanon due to the attack on four soldiers. Iran has stated that it will only consider reopening the strait if Israel completely and permanently withdraws from Lebanon and stops all attacks, while Netanyahu has firmly stated that there will be no withdrawal. At present, Emini Futures has fallen slightly by 0.22% in night trading. Key technical positions of SPY SPY is currently only 1.76% away from its historical high of $760.40, with overall high-level sideways fluctuations in May and June. The core resistance is between $756 and $760.40, with $750 having a weak short-term resistance. On the support side, the first support is at $740 to $738, and the market has rebounded multiple times in the past few weeks due to buying support at this level. The strong support in the mid line is in the $732 and $721 range. From the Gamma structure of SPX options, there are two absolute key points in the July option cycle. The downward strong support is at 7400 points, which is currently the area with the largest positive Gamma exposure accumulated below. It is also the core exercise price that S&P has repeatedly bottomed out and received strong support in the past one to two weeks. The strong upward resistance is at 7600 points, which is also mixed with a huge amount of Gamma exposure. As the July options cycle advances, this position is likely to be tested or touched by the market again next week. The last two weeks of June are likely to fluctuate between 7350-7600, and in early July, it will truly break through the previous high of 7600 points, so the strategy is to buy the dip at low prices. The signal provided by VIX On the previous trading day, VIX fell 10.96%, and there will be at least one day of decline in the next two trading days. As long as the VIX remains below 20 and below its 50 day daily EMA, combined with the positive Gamma exposure shown by the S&P 500 index on major heavyweight stocks, the US stock market is still in a very healthy buying environment. Several stocks are worth paying close attention to this week AMD surged 4.73% in a single day on Friday, regaining the important integer level of $500 (previously falling below that level within a week). The 15 minute chart shows that all major moving averages have been re established, with a significant amount of option trading volume and Gamma exposure flowing into the $600 exercise price during Thursday's trading. As long as it can maintain above $500, the market is laying the groundwork for AMD to challenge the $600 resistance level with options chips. If AMD falls back to $500 or lower on Monday due to a low opening in futures, it would be a good opportunity for bullish spread options to enter the market. INTC, stimulated by the strong fundamentals of Apple's agreement to design and manufacture chips locally, surged 10.50% in a single day and closed at $133.79, accurately breaking through the sideways consolidation range of the past month and standing at $120. At night, it has now reached $141. The options market shows a sharp increase in Call open interest contracts and Gamma exposure at a strike price of $150, showing a strong positive tilt. This ticket often fluctuates up to 10 to 15 points within one or two days. If it falls back on this bull market flag shape at the beginning of this week due to the drag of the market, it is also a good opportunity to layout the spread of the call price for future virtual value. After experiencing a 300 point extreme surge from $850 to $1150 last week, MU is currently at its highest level in history and far exceeds all moving averages, posing a great risk of chasing high prices. A more prudent approach is to sell the news after the financial report and wait for it to return to the $975 to $1000 range (strong Gamma support zone) before considering going long, rather than rushing to build a position at the current price. CTA and Pension Adjustment The Goldman Sachs CTA data mentioned on Wednesday and Thursday this week shows that regardless of whether the market is flat, rising, or falling in the coming week, CTA will be net selling. Combined with the mechanical stock selling action of the end of season rebalancing of pension funds, this week was originally a sensitive window period, and now with the addition of geopolitical variables, the sensitivity has been further amplified. But this is still a mechanical and fundamental selling pressure, and geopolitics is the real biggest source of uncertainty this week. The chip structure can be observed. The Gamma exposure in the options market shows that there is a much greater accumulation of Gamma exposure below than above, and the magnetic attraction effect tends to drag down the price. The position of CTA quantitative funds has been quietly declining, forming a clear deviation from the spot price approaching historical highs. A pullback is a buying opportunity. This week's core events On Wednesday, Micron Technology released its financial report, which is the most crucial catalyst for the entire semiconductor and storage chip sector next week. Although chip stocks experienced a V-shaped rebound this week with some emotional recovery, emotional recovery does not necessarily mean fundamental confirmation. What truly determines the next direction of this sector is whether Micron's management can maintain or even raise HBM's annual performance guidance. Before Thursday's trading session, the PCE Price Index for May was released, which is the most important inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve and the first heavyweight inflation reading since new Chairman Walsh's hawkish stance. There is a statistical time difference that needs special attention here: this week, due to the US Iran Peace Treaty, crude oil prices plummeted, but the PCE statistics released next week are for May and have not yet reflected this wave of oil price decline. The PCE readings next week are likely to be warmer. If the data is too hot and causes short-term market turbulence, it should be seen as lagging data that has not yet reflected positive news, and there is no need to be scared. Adding GDP final value and initial jobless claims, Thursday is the most critical hard data day of the week. The trend of oil prices and the follow-up of US Iran negotiations are the variables that need to be closely monitored in the coming period Although a preliminary memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was signed earlier, the agreement itself is extremely fragile, only a 60 day negotiation window, not a final outcome. During these 60 days, any repetition from either Israel, Lebanon, or Iran will cause oil prices to rebound. Now that the Strait of Hormuz has been substantially closed, this incident itself is a concrete case of recurrence, proving that this window period is indeed unstable. The oil price directly affects inflation expectations and the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve, so we must closely monitor the trend of oil prices. At the same time, we should also keep an eye on whether there is any follow-up activity on the yen arbitrage trading after the Bank of Japan raises interest rates. Summarize how to view this week Micron's financial report and core PCE data remain the two most important internal catalysts for this week, but the pace of geopolitical development may overshadow these two originally planned events and become the variables that truly determine the direction of this week. SPY's 7400 point support and 7600 point resistance are the two most important Gamma watersheds of the week, and AMD's $600 and Intel's $150 are also worth keeping an eye on separately. I suggest being more conservative in terms of positions this week, keeping enough cash, and not buying too much or short in times of high geopolitical uncertainty. Wait until the situation becomes clearer before making any moves. There will still be many buying opportunities before the end of June, and the overall trend will remain high between 7350-7600, with no clear unilateral upward or downward trend. The strategy is to buy on dips to prepare for the new round of financial reporting season in July and August.