2026 marks the official start of the sixth Kondratiev wave | We stand at a 60-year historical turning point The Kondratiev wave (K-wave) is a global ultra-long economic cycle lasting 50–60 years, driven by disruptive technological revolutions. It is divided into four phases: recovery, prosperity, recession, and depression. Most people can only experience one full K-wave in their lifetime. Tracing the full timeline of humanity’s six K-waves: 1. First wave (1780–1840) | Steam engines, textile mechanization | First Industrial Revolution, rise of Britain 2. Second wave (1840–1890) | Railroads, steel, heavy machinery | Expansion of heavy industry, early globalization takes shape 3. Third wave (1890–1940) | Electricity, internal combustion engines, chemicals, automobiles | Electrification era, U.S. becomes the leading global economy 4. Fourth wave (1940–1990) | Petrochemicals, home appliances, aviation electronics | Post-war golden age of consumption 5. Fifth wave (1990–2025) | Internet, semiconductors, mobile communications | Digital era, globalization peaks Phase breakdown: Prosperity (1991–2008) → Recession (2008–2015) → Depression (2015–2025), with the old information technology dividends fully exhausted by 2025 6. Sixth wave (2026–2085, estimated) | AI large models, computing power semiconductors, solar energy storage, robotics, quantum computing, biomedicine Key takeaway: 2026 = Year 1 of recovery in the sixth K-wave Based on Zhou Jintao’s cycle predictions, consensus from Goldman Sachs and ARK’s Cathie Wood’s 2026 institutional reports: The world is currently at the tail end of the depression phase of the fifth wave + the transition window into the recovery phase of the sixth K-wave. Characteristics of the old cycle: Continued clearing of excess capacity in traditional real estate, legacy internet, and low-end manufacturing; debt digestion; intensified geopolitical conflicts. Signals of the new cycle: Explosive capital expenditure in AI computing power, rapid penetration of renewable energy, dual policy and funding support for hard tech industries, rising industrial metal prices, and long-term growth opportunities for growth assets. K-wave depressions clear out the old order, while recoveries mark the starting point for new wealth distribution. Over the next decade, AI and green energy will recreate the epic industrial opportunities once brought by the internet, electricity, and steam engines. #KondratievWave #Macroeconomics #AIWave #GlobalAssets