wu fan|Jun 21, 2026 13:04
QQQ probably hasn’t peaked in the short term.
During the bubble phase, QQQ’s P/E ratio could exceed 50, maybe even approach 100.
Right now, it’s still under 40.
When I say now isn’t a great time,
I don’t mean that if you buy, it’ll immediately drop.
It’s still about the EV issue.
If you’re buying now without considering valuation,
are the risks of a drop balanced with the potential gains?
Revenue for AI to B companies
is currently just the spending of these to C companies.
Take Meta as an example:
They’re spending a ton of money on procurement,
which supports NVIDIA’s orders.
So when Meta drops, NVIDIA rises.
Similarly, whether OpenAI’s subscription revenue
can continue to meet expectations
is also key to whether this Nasdaq AI bubble
can be absorbed.
To C companies need to make money
so there’s a steady flow of cash for to B companies to buy chips.
Otherwise, they’ll just keep spinning stories on Wall Street,
selling stocks, issuing bonds—it’s only a matter of time before it collapses.
The AI bubble doesn’t necessarily have to burst,
but until C-end companies start making money,
this possibility is like a sword hanging over our heads,
ready to drop at any moment.
When did the internet bubble recover after it burst?
It was when Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu—these to C companies—started making money.
Only when to C companies are profitable
can the ecosystem truly form and grow sustainably.
What I mean is,
buying QQQ now doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll lose money,
but it’s not some ultra-high EV opportunity either.
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