比特幣交易者 科幣託 crypto|6月 21, 2026 12:29
The crypto market is perfect for technical analysis.
But just because I’ve succeeded in the crypto market using technical analysis doesn’t mean I apply the same approach to the stock market.
You need to consider the effectiveness of a method before applying it.
Stocks and crypto are vastly different.
The effectiveness of technical analysis is based on the idea that under similar market conditions, people tend to adopt similar psychological behaviors and decision-making patterns.
For technical analysis to work, the market needs a large number of retail participants. It can also help interpret some institutional behaviors.
However, the stock market is influenced by far more complex factors—international politics, monetary policy, company fundamentals, future growth assessments, institutional capital, and only then the behavior of retail investors.
Many successful stock traders or institutions place very little weight on technical analysis.
But the crypto market is different.
Bitcoin doesn’t generate revenue, and its fundamentals don’t change over time. Its decentralized nature limits the impact of international politics, and monetary policy doesn’t affect the crypto market as much as people think. Otherwise, the market wouldn’t consistently follow its four-year cycle, which actually conflicts with monetary policy.
The Bitcoin market is driven by a mix of institutions, retail traders, and automated trading programs.
Under similar market conditions, these players tend to exhibit similar psychological patterns and make similar decisions.
That’s why technical analysis plays a significant role in my trading system, and it’s also the reason I’ve been so successful over the past seven to eight years.
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