Teacher Miss said, 'It's hard to fall below 60000 next week,' but I completely disagree! BTC falling below 60000 is only a matter of time! 】 Brothers and sisters, I saw an excellent trader, teacher and blogger on Twitter at the weekend and said: The biggest pain point for option delivery in the second quarter is that it will be difficult to fall below 60000 next week. ” The comment section is filled with agreement. But after reading it, I felt that this statement was only half right. We can't just nod our heads just because someone has a lot of fans, we have to use our own brains to think. 1. The half of what she said is correct: the biggest pain point does indeed have a 'magnetic attraction effect'. The logic of the beautiful leader is not flawed. According to Deribit's data, the biggest pain point for Bitcoin options expiring on June 19th is indeed at $65000, with a nominal value of approximately $1.9 billion and a Put/Call Ratio of only 0.78 (slightly higher). The maximum pain point theory does indeed have a "magnetic attraction effect" - the price will approach the position that causes the most loss for option buyers before and after expiration. So before June 19th, 65000 is indeed an upward traction target. The data also confirms this point: before the expiration on June 19th, BTC did bounce up from around 62000, briefly touching around 67000 before being pushed back below 63000 by selling pressure. So her statement that 'the biggest pain point has magnetic attraction' holds true. 2. But she was wrong about the other half: the options on June 19th have already expired! The biggest issue is that the batch of options she mentioned had already expired on June 19th. What is the fact? After the expiration on June 19th, BTC settled at $62500, below the maximum pain point of $65000. ETH closed at $1690, also below the maximum pain point of $1725. A large number of call options were directly reset to zero, and the long position did not reach 65000. Now that this batch of contracts has expired, using them to judge the trend of "next week" is illogical. The real focus should be on the quarterly settlement on June 26th. This is the highlight. About 15% of the option positions will expire on that day, with 80% of the contracts in an out of money state, with a nominal value of approximately $13 billion, and a bearish structure dominating. 3. 60000 is a 'defense line', not a 'steel plate'. Even steel plates will one day be melted by the main force of bears! She said 'it's hard to fall below 60000 next week' - this conclusion is too far fetched. The exercise price of $60000 is currently the most critical threshold. Once it continues to fall below this level, the hedging funds of market makers will shift from stabilizing the market to accelerating the decline. In plain terms, if we hold onto the position of 60000, it's okay; If you can't hold on, it's not a slow decline, it's an accelerated decline. Looking at the current macro environment: The US dollar index has reached 101, with a 30 day ETF outflow of 6.35 billion US dollars, setting a historical record. 60000 is indeed a support, but it is a 'thin skin support', not a 'steel plate'. 4. Conclusion: The real exam venue is the quarterly settlement next Tuesday! What she said: the maximum pain point is the 6.5 million magnetic attraction effect; My judgment: ✅ This logic exists, but that batch of contracts expired on June 19th; She said: It's difficult to fall below 60000 next week; My judgment: ❌ Quarterly settlement is the real test, 60000 is thin skin, once broken, it accelerates; What she said: 60000 is the key support; My judgment: ✅ It is indeed a key position, but 'key' does not mean 'unbreakable'. The real focus should not be on the 'June 19th batch', but on the 'June 26th quarterly settlement' - with approximately $13 billion in options expiring and short positions dominating, which is the biggest variable for next week. The third test was conducted in an environment of 60000 yuan, which was worse than the previous two tests. The US dollar broke 101, ETFs set a record outflow, and expectations of interest rate hikes are heating up. It's not impossible to play, but saying 'it's hard to fall below 60000' - I think it's too optimistic. ❤️ Lastly, I have no grudge against the beautiful cult leader. I have always respected her very much, purely based on my predictions and opinions on the Bitcoin market. In the market, some people are bullish while others are bearish, otherwise there won't be any competitors. 60000 is not the finish line, it's just a road sign. The third test is likely to directly pass through and run towards around 55000. Three dimensional integrated trading analysis of Bitcoin BTC option delivery