Murphy
Murphy|6月 21, 2026 01:34
From the chart below, it’s clear that for preferred shares to be breached, BTC would need to drop to $26,000; for debt to be breached, it would need to fall to $8,000... In reality, there’s currently no repayment crisis for preferred shares. Similar products like SATA are still holding steady above $99 this week. SATA hasn’t depegged, but STRC has, which shows that this selling pressure is more targeted at Strategy rather than being a fundamental flaw in the design of such tools. So, this feels more like a repricing of leverage and credit, compounded by the depletion of cash reserves and the amplification of the first token-selling signal, leading to liquidity tightening. But it’s definitely not a liquidation crisis. Strategy is still far from forced liquidation; it’s just that at the current price, the flywheel has indeed stalled. Moving forward, BTC’s price trajectory will determine whether this is merely a halftime pause or the start of a downward spiral. However, comparing STRC’s depegging to the UST depegging/LUNA collapse from the last cycle and framing it as a death spiral narrative seems a bit overblown. If BTC’s price recovers, the equity ATM can reopen, the flywheel can restart, dividends can be supplemented with common shares, and cash reserves can be rebuilt—addressing the most dangerous factor behind STRC’s discount. As @PhyrexNi (Ni Da) aptly said, the real switch has always been BTC’s price!
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