Melting Crude Oil Could Guide Post-Inflation Deflation WTI crude alongside the ratio of the S&P 500 to its 100-week moving average highlights the deflationary pattern of the world's leading industrial commodity. Meanwhile, a bit of overdue reversion in stocks could add fuel to oil's downtrend. WTI has experienced bouts of recovery akin to 1H, but such gains are typically ephemeral. When beta drops, oil usually swoons. What's different is that the record-setting stock market, at about 2.6x GDP, may be the 10 on a 1-to-10 scale for inflation, if history is a guide. Affordability remains a top election issue. Lose-lose is my outlook: A rebound in crude or a resilient stock market would underpin inflation. A primary force for a down year for WTI -- below $57.42 a barrel and following natural gas -- may be the S&P 500 reverting some of its roughly 20% premium to its 100-week mean. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tgrqh7kgzaln {BI COMD} #crudeoil #stockmarket @Bloomberg(Mike McGlone)