I believe the price shock in this cycle could be much stronger than most people expect. If Bitcoin's current price level around $60,000 is not the bottom, then the downside from a cycle perspective could be far more severe than what the market is currently pricing in. To be blunt, when I look at the broader picture, I do not see the overall situation improving. Because of that, I believe the probability that $60,000 represents the final bottom is relatively low. Now let's assume Bitcoin breaks below $60,000. What will happen next? Most market participants will immediately begin searching for the next bottom using technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and other "high -confidence" datasets. They will develop new price targets and new plans based on those models. But I think we need to step back and consider something more fundamental. Right now, many people describe the current market as: "Extreme fear" "Everyone has left the market" If that is truly the case, then we should already be in a deeply distressed environment. And if price falls significantly from here, shouldn't the discussion move beyond another correction? Shouldn't it become a debate about the long-term viability and credibility of Bitcoin itself? Yet that is not what I see happening. Even if price drops further, people will continue to use historical data, technical models, and on-chain metrics to estimate where the next bottom might be. And that is precisely the point. It means Bitcoin is still operating within a predictable framework. That is why I do not consider this to be genuine fear. Real fear exists when the market moves beyond people's ability to model, predict, or plan for what comes next. But today, people are still planning. They are still building scenarios. They are still relying on the same datasets to define what "fear" looks like. In other words, they claim to be fearful, while simultaneously using the same frameworks that have guided them throughout the cycle. We saw something very similar near the previous market top. The direction was different, but the behavior was the same. People used the same datasets, the same cycle models, and the same assumptions to predict Bitcoin's future path. Did the market actually follow those expectations? Especially in this cycle, many of the cycle-based models and historical references that investors trusted have been significantly damaged. Yet despite that, the market continues to rely on the same frameworks. Take the 200-day moving average as an example. Many investors view it as a reliable indicator for identifying bottoms and support zones. But there is an important detail that often gets overlooked. Historically, those models worked after Bitcoin had already achieved the type of cycle top investors expected. This cycle is different. Bitcoin is declining without ever fully satisfying many of the conditions that previous cycle-top frameworks anticipated. That distinction matters. If the period between February and May had truly been a fear-driven accumulation phase, where informed participants were quietly buying and building positions, then I would expect any further downside to be relatively limited in both depth and duration. But that is not what I see. That is why I believe that if Bitcoin loses the $60,000 level, the decline could extend well beyond what most existing models and datasets currently suggest. For that reason, I do not believe this is the right environment to make aggressive price forecasts or build detailed investment plans around specific levels. More importantly, the market itself has changed. Since the approval of Bitcoin ETF, retail investors now have access to far more institutional-grade data than ever before. At the same time, advances in AI have dramatically increased the analytical capabilities of individual investors. Retail participants are now using tools and information that were once available only to professionals. The market is smarter than it has ever been. But there is something many people forget. You are not the only one who became smarter. Everyone became smarter. The entire market has been leveled up. A weapon only has value when it provides an advantage over others. When everyone possesses the same weapon, its value declines significantly. And I have no doubt that the major players understand this reality. That is why, if Bitcoin breaks below $60,000 and market behavior unfolds the way I believe it might, the resulting price shock could be significantly larger than what most participants are currently prepared for. That possibility should not be ignored.(mignolet)