比特幣交易者 科幣託 crypto
比特幣交易者 科幣託 crypto|Jun 20, 2026 00:19
This might be the biggest valuation illusion in modern capital markets. SpaceX's valuation is nearing $2.5 trillion. But the shares actually in circulation? Only about 4%. Yep. The entire $2.5 trillion valuation is calculated based on just 4% of circulating shares. The remaining 96%? Completely locked up. What does this mean? There's a term in the crypto world: FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation). Every seasoned investor knows: If a project only has 3%-5% of its supply circulating, it always looks expensive. Because the price is determined by a very small number of tokens. When the unlock happens, that's when true price discovery begins. And SpaceX? It's playing out the same story. Based on actual circulating shares, SpaceX's "circulating market cap" might only be $90 billion to $120 billion. But Wall Street treats it as one of the most valuable companies in the world. Why? Because the rules have changed. Nasdaq removed the 10% circulating share requirement. Shortened the IPO preparation timeline. Increased the weighting of special circulating shares in calculations. The result? Trillions of dollars in ETF funds are passively buying in. Not because it's cheap. But because the index mandates it. Now let's look at the fundamentals: SpaceX annual revenue: $18.7 billion. Amazon annual revenue: $717 billion. The revenue gap is nearly 40x. Yet their valuations were once close. What's even crazier? SpaceX doesn't even rank in the global top 100 for revenue. But its valuation has soared into the global top 5. And it's not like NVIDIA. Not like Microsoft. Not like Amazon. It's still losing money. After absorbing xAI's massive cash burn, profits went from $8 billion in the black to $4.9 billion in the red. Its current valuation corresponds to: 110-130x sales. S&P 500 average: 3.5x. NVIDIA: Around 20x. But the real danger lies ahead. The current 4% circulating shares? Won't stay at 4% forever. From August to December, locked shares will start to unlock gradually. Circulating shares could increase 13x. Today's price is formed in an environment of extreme scarcity. So here's the question: What happens when hundreds of billions of dollars worth of shares flood the market? Anyone who's been through the crypto world knows what usually happens next. The real question isn't whether dilution will occur. It's whether Wall Street is pretending not to see it, or simply doesn't care.
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