Repeatedly rubbing around BTC 60000, will this time be different for 'no more than three'? 】 Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 60000 again. From 67300 on June 17th to 62200 on June 19th, it fell 5000 points in two days. The US stock market was closed, institutions withdrew, and the US Iran agreement was a farce. The bears used all the reasons they could. The so-called bottom of 60000 yuan tested three times, getting weaker and weaker with each test, and the principle that nothing can go wrong, is well understood by people in the cryptocurrency industry. 1. A set of core data. BTC current price: about $62650, down over 3% in 24 hours 24-hour liquidation: $453 million, multiple liquidation of $366 million Fear and Greed Index: 14-15 (Extreme Fear) Continuous outflow of spot ETFs: $216 million outflow on June 17, approximately $91 million outflow on June 18, totaling approximately $307 million over the two days 2. Falling logic: Three forces simultaneously hit the market. Firstly, the farce of the US Iran agreement. The electronic version of the agreement has been signed, but the Swiss signing ceremony has turned yellow, and Israel is still fighting Lebanon. The market's expectation of "favorable landing" has turned into "favorable discount", and the bulls have been directly taught a lesson. The impact of the agreement on the market has shifted from a 'positive catalyst' to a 'digested event'. Secondly, ETF funds have been continuously withdrawing. This rebound itself did not bring in any incremental funds. The trend of institutional retreat has not stopped yet - the total net outflow of ETFs in the past two days exceeded $300 million, and BlackRock IBIT had a daily outflow of $96.7 million. Thirdly, the technological structure has completely deteriorated. The key support of 63600-63800 was directly penetrated, the long stop loss order was triggered, and those who leveraged to chase long were taken away by a wave. The 4-hour rebound is relatively weak, and the bullish volume is also relatively weak. However, the US stock market is closed tonight, giving the bulls the opportunity to try to counterattack. But the bearish pattern is suppressing it, and it is estimated that the bullish rebound will be at the end of its strength. 3. What will happen to the third test after two tests? The first test (February 6th): The trading volume was high, and then rebounded for 100 days, reaching 82820. Second test (June 6th): Trading volume is only half of February, rebound only 10 days, and high point is only 67300. The third test is currently on its way. Every time the price is tested, the support weakens by one point. The first time was a massive buying spree to buy at the bottom, the second time was a shrinking rebound to escape, and what about the third time? Exhaustion of buying orders, no more than three things. 4. Professional traders have already priced it at 52000 yuan. This round of decline is not about retail investors panicking, but about smart money taking action. Bitcoin traders are buying a large number of put options - if the price drops to 52000 in the next few weeks, these options will bring lucrative returns. The derivatives market is pricing deep selling. On a technical level, the upper and lower support is at the 60000 integer level, and the ultimate support is around 57600. Once 60000 is penetrated by a large volume, the space below opens directly, and 55000 is just passing by. 5. Trading strategy. Continue holding the 65268 empty order, with stop loss protection for movement. The third test cost 60000 yuan, which is different from the previous two times - the macro background has changed, the buying momentum has disappeared, institutions are running, and traders are buying 52K insurance. If there is a high volume long shadow line around 60000, partial profit taking can be considered. But if the shrinking small bullish line rebounds to 63500-64000 and cannot move, it is an opportunity to add short positions. Don't chase too much, there are only 2600 points left from 60000. The space for chasing too much is too small, and there is a lot of room for getting beaten up. 6. The final reminder. When testing 60000 for the first time in February, everyone thought it was the bottom. During the second test in June, some people believed it was an iron bottom. Now it's the third time - the more times the "iron bottom" is hammered, the easier it is to break. It's not a big deal, this time it may really be different. Let 60000 be tested first, let the third test have a "iron bottom" outcome, let the market come out on its own, and let the profits of empty orders continue to run. I won't elaborate further. Bitcoin BTC 3D Integrated Trading Analysis