Today's US stock market summary: The settlement for Friday this week was completed, but the real test may be at the end of the month - let me tell you my judgment on the remaining time of June I had something to do today and sent it a bit late 。 Let's talk about today's market first The Nasdaq closed up 1.91%, the S&P closed up 1.08%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by 0.14%. This week, the gap in the upward jump has been basically filled. But one thing needs to be made clear: today is a historic option delivery day, and S&P has been precisely controlled and locked at the 7500 integer level, allowing put options at this position to directly reset to zero. At the same time, today also hit the settlement of the third day of witchcraft, with huge trading volume but a large part concentrated in the last minute of opening and closing, and the short-term reference significance of technical form is not significant. SPY also saw 38 dark pool bulk trades worth $14.6 billion today, making it the fourth largest single day cluster trade in history. This is more like a super institution trading positions between different ETFs, not simply fleeing, but also indicating that the volatility will be amplified in the future. The next two weeks will be one of the most important technical window periods of the year Citigroup's research report is very direct: the price trend in the next two weeks will be driven more by cash flow rather than fundamentals. The market needs to simultaneously digest the largest option expiration in history, quarter end pension rebalancing, and overall position reset at the end of the first half of the year. There are two mechanical selling orders here that need to be focused on. The first is CTA quantitative trading. As mentioned repeatedly before, CTA is likely to be in a net selling state in various scenarios next week. The second is the end of season adjustment of pension funds. The funding adequacy ratio of the top 100 pension funds in the United States has reached 110%, the highest level since 2001. The high capital adequacy ratio means that many foundations choose to continue reducing their risk exposure, cash in stock profits, and allocate them to bonds to lock in returns. JPMorgan estimates that this rebalancing may involve up to $165 billion in stock sales. This is a mechanical and fundamental free throwing pressure. From the perspective of option structure, there is currently a lack of sufficient market maker hedging power above the S&P 7500, and it will be difficult to climb upwards slowly without a smooth upward trend. But once it really breaks down, before reaching the support level of 7320, the liquidity in the middle will become very thin, and the fall may actually be faster and faster. This upward and downward structure is already indicating that the next two weeks will not be a one-sided market trend. The points I provided are still valid: 7430, 7390, 7350, 7320. These positions were not given randomly, but were estimated based on the strength of CTA and pension machinery sales. This script is not the first time it has appeared, it was performed once in March this year During the period from March 18th to 30th this year, the trend was very similar to now, when CTA automatic selling and end of season adjustment of pension funds occurred simultaneously. On April 1st, a new round of funds entered the market, coinciding with the start of the financial reporting season, and the market immediately strengthened again. The current situation follows a similar logic, but the volatility may be smaller due to the absence of macroeconomic events. That's why I've always emphasized that there's no need to panic about the pullback before the end of June. This is a technical pullback, not a signal of deteriorating fundamentals. July trend The Nasdaq 100 has risen 17 times in July over the past 18 years. This is not a coincidence, there are structural reasons behind it: July 1st is the beginning of the second half of the year, and target date funds and systematic long short strategies will adjust their allocation limits. This incremental capital will re-enter the market together with retirement account contributions and passive investment funds. The activity of individual investors is currently at its highest level in history. These three factors are combined: retail participation is at a historical high, end of season positions are being forcibly reset, and seasonal patterns are leaning towards favorable. The overall signal given is that as long as the mechanical selling at the end of the month is fully digested, the probability of the market going up is significantly higher than going down, and the opening conditions for the second half of the year are relatively positive. I have updated my assessment for the next few months based on this information The overall framework is as follows: the correction in June will continue until the end of the month, and after the start of the financial reporting season in July and August, the Nasdaq and S&P will reach new highs, reaching the range of 7800 to 8000, completely breaking out of the current consolidation and oscillation zone. By mid August, the lifting of SpaceX stock restrictions will be a crucial milestone. After 30% of the early shares are unlocked, early investors are likely to sell, and the Nasdaq may follow suit and experience a correction. The uncertainty before the midterm elections will be compounded by this pullback, which is expected to continue until mid October. After the callback is completed, it will reach 8200 by the end of the year. There is a risk signal worth noting here: if the market continues to hit new highs in July and August, the daily charts of the S&P and Nasdaq may deviate from the triple top pattern. If such a signal appears, the pullback from August to October may not be just an ordinary adjustment, but a final wash up similar to the one in August to October 1998. After that wash up, the following year will be the full start of the truly irrational bull market. This historical reference can be noted, but it is not a basis for immediate action, just a script worth preparing in advance. Several noteworthy individual stocks and sectors Intel surged 10.64% today. Trump publicly mentioned that the US government has invested 10% of Intel's shares, and its book value has risen from the initial 100 billion to over 600 billion. He also said that Apple has agreed to hand over some chip orders to Intel for design and manufacturing in the United States. This line has been being validated before, first with Google's TPU orders, and now with Apple's intention to cooperate, Intel's OEM comeback story is gradually being realized in reality. The storage chip line is also accelerating. SanDisk surged more than 11% today, and there are rumors in the market that Apple may increase the price of new models in the fall by up to 20% due to rising flash memory procurement costs, shifting the cost onto consumers. This precisely confirms that the tight supply of storage chips is still ongoing. It is also worth mentioning on the US dollar side that DXY has broken through a year long fundraising range, setting a new high in over a year and surpassing the pressure level of 100. The strengthening of the US dollar will suppress risky assets. Gold has fallen below all key moving averages, and I will only consider buying if it returns to the consolidation range of 3300-3500 from April to August 2025. BTC has also been hit by the daily EMA 20 reject 10 day and 21 day moving averages, and it is estimated that the second half of the year will be a process of bottoming out in a downward oscillation. The 55000-60000 range will need to consolidate for a period of time, continuously increasing and decreasing liquidity until no one pays attention, and finally restarting. It is estimated to restart in November or December. Summarize my operational approach The pullback before the end of June will be divided into batches according to the calculation, with gradually increasing positions at points 7430, 7390, 7350, and 7320. This pullback is more like a technical capital movement, not a trend reversal. Starting from July, with the influx of new funds and the start of the financial reporting season, it is expected to strengthen again and rush towards 7800-8000. The lifting of SpaceX's ban in mid August and the uncertainty of the midterm elections may bring about another round of correction. If this correction is accompanied by a divergence signal from the top, its nature may be closer to the final wash up of 1998 rather than simply profit taking. The target for the end of the year is 8200. This framework is not an accurate prediction, but a probabilistic framework that will be continuously updated with data, but the current framework is roughly like this.