Art of Speculation|Jun 18, 2026 22:30
agree
I also agree that the most important quality in investment is humility. Always keep learning and always remain skeptical of your own opinions.
My biggest feeling when studying the AI industry chain is that real money is all cognitive monetization, and there is no way to earn money outside of cognition.
But investors don't need to turn themselves into semiconductor experts. People who study finance cannot understand every architectural detail like chip designers, nor can they master the entire industry chain like optical communication engineers.
What investment requires is not a 100 point major, but a 50 point breadth+continuous learning depth.
Knowing why HBM is out of stock, why ASIC is rising, why optical interconnect is important, and how CPU/GPU/storage/switches communicate with each other, has actually surpassed the vast majority of people in the market.
The rest is to remain humble.
Read more books, read more research reports, listen more to financial conference calls, and seek advice from real industry experts.
Investors do not need to become experts, but they must have the ability to identify experts. Always keep learning, always doubt your own opinions, always humbly feel that there are still many things you don't understand, and seek advice from people who are better than you.
I also strongly agree with two points you mentioned:
Firstly, do not use leverage. Most people's cognition and emotions cannot withstand the fluctuations caused by leverage. The market is always there, surviving is more important than making quick money.
Secondly, one must have the courage to question experts. Experts can also be wrong, and the market will not change its operating rules just because of what authority says. Ultimately, one must rely on their own logical deduction to form independent judgment, and then take responsibility for their own decisions.
My own long-term position has always followed Buffett's philosophy: no leverage.
Only by occasionally engaging in trading, would one use a small portion of funds to play options as an opportunity with high odds.
Because investing is not about who earns more in a year, but about who can live and learn in the market for a long time, and then gradually compound their knowledge. It is never too late to learn.
Money rewards those who always maintain humility.
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