Viewpoint: The expiration of trillions of dollars worth of options will trigger a two-week volatility in the US stock market

BlockBeats News: On June 18th, Scott Lubner, head of stock and stock derivatives strategy at Castle Securities, stated that the US stock market may experience a period of increased volatility in the next two weeks, but this is more due to technical factors rather than fundamental changes. He pointed out that from June 19, the market will usher in the expiration of the largest option in history. At the same time, it will superimpose the rebalancing of pension portfolio at the end of the quarter and the centralized adjustment of the positions of major investor groups. This stage is referred to by him as one of the most critical periods of the year in terms of technology, and the importance of capital flow will be significantly higher than fundamental factors. Despite short-term disturbances, Lubner still suggests that investors view volatility as a 'technical phenomenon' and plan for dips during market downturns. He believes that once the next two weeks and quarter end nodes are crossed, the market environment will significantly improve. Lubner stated that the current investment behavior of retail investors is undergoing changes: "Unlike in the past when they only pursued high-risk targets, retail investors are increasingly focusing on companies that are aligned with institutional allocation and can drive benchmark index performance." More importantly, American households currently hold record levels of cash and are waiting for market corrections to enter. He pointed out that this funding characteristic usually only changes when the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) rises above 30, while the current VIX is around 16, still at a relatively low level. Supported by multiple sources of funding, Lubner predicts that the main trend of the US stock market will continue to be upward after entering the second half of the year.