Founder of Oak Capital: Those who are cautious are unlikely to achieve great things, and those who are watching now may miss the greatest investment opportunity in history According to Golden Finance, on June 18th, Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, recently discussed on a podcast whether the current market has fallen into "irrational exuberance" and the opportunities and risks under the AI investment boom. He pointed out that the current market can be described using the words of Greenspan 30 years ago, that we are in a state of "prosperity", but no one can determine whether this is truly "irrational". He cited SpaceX's IPO with a valuation of nearly $2 trillion as an example, stating that whether or not to participate and at what price to participate in such IPOs are purely "guessing" and cannot calculate a reasonable price on paper like traditional value investing. Howard mentioned his favorite signature line: 'Those who are cautious are unlikely to achieve great things.'. He pointed out a current investment challenge: investing in such tech giants may make huge mistakes, but it can also create brilliant achievements. And those who wait and see due to fear of risk may miss the greatest investment opportunity in human history. On the other hand, investors in traditional industries such as transportation, distribution and retail, and real estate are unlikely to make catastrophic investment mistakes, and they are also unable to seize this epoch-making huge dividend. At the valuation level, Howard gave a key reference: the current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is about 23 times, 16 times higher than the average in 1980, about 50%, but far lower than 32 times of the Internet foam in 2000, and also lower than the level of 60 to 90 times in the "beautiful 50" era, so the overall "is high but not out of control". In the face of AI investment, he proposed a three-tier gradient layout approach: investing in ultra large scale technology companies is a low-risk path because they have mature businesses and cash flows; Investing in vertical AI companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI carries higher risks but has a higher probability of survival; Investing in early-stage startups is similar to buying lottery tickets, where most people will lose money and a few will become extremely wealthy. He suggested that investors can choose which position in the risk spectrum to invest in, or mix and allocate different positions on the spectrum, and then decide on the proportion of these companies on the spectrum that should account for their total investment portfolio.