Latest BTC Market Briefing: Walsh's Debut Set: Interest Rate Expectations Return to Zero, BTC Falls Below 64000 ❗ ️] Last night, the FOMC interest rate decision was released, and there is no doubt that it will remain unchanged at 3.5% -3.75%. But Walsh's debut dropped three bombs on the market. 1. A set of core data. BTC current price: around 63800-64000, down about 3.04% in 24 hours; Fear and Greed Index: 15 (extreme fear), yesterday's 24-hour sell-off: 476 million US dollars, over 110000 people liquidated, with multiple orders accounting for 352 million; Bitcoin spot ETF (6/17): net outflow of $82.16 million; BlackRock IBIT: net outflow of $30.76 million, Ark ARKB: net outflow of $43.53 million. ETF institutions have a small net outflow. If 60000 is the bottom, they should aggressively buy at the bottom. However, they withdrew. I understand what I understand, and I have no choice but to understand what I don't. 2. Walsh dropped three bombs. Firstly, the wording indicating a tendency towards interest rate cuts has been removed. The statement has been condensed to 130 words, removing the statement implying that "the next step is more likely to be a rate cut". The expectation of interest rate cuts is directly reduced to zero. Secondly, among the 18 officials who submitted the dot matrix, 9 are expected to raise interest rates at least once this year. The median forecast for year-end interest rates is 3.8%, which is 0.16 percentage points higher than the current rate. The interest rate hike is already on its way. Thirdly, Walsh did not submit the dot matrix diagram, breaking the 14 year tradition. He has long criticized the Federal Reserve for saying too much, believing that the dot matrix restricts decision-making flexibility. Only 18 out of 19 people submitted forecasts, and the market lost its most important policy indicator. The largest one in the future The bomb is a sharp drop in the US stock market, wait and see, 90% of it will happen, and the most likely month for a sharp drop is estimated to be September. 3. Market status: Confirmation of medium-term bearish trend. BTC's volume has dropped below 64000, and the head volume can continue for 4 hours, with little resistance from bulls. However, short positions can continue to exert strength, only a strong bearish sub volume can, so the decline is not smooth. The daily chart level is suppressed by the central track of the Bollinger Bands, and continues to decline. The 4-hour MACD short position can continue to increase. The medium-term bearish trend has been confirmed, with key support below 63400-63700 in the short term. 4. What to watch next? Firstly, ETF outflows are accelerating, IBIT is shifting from inflows to outflows, and institutions are withdrawing, not bottom fishing. Secondly, the correlation between the market and the US stock market is as high as 63%, and the real interest rate has risen to 2.23%, which is the strictest level in this round, directly exerting revaluation pressure on non cash flow assets. Thirdly, in the short term, if 63400 is breached, the 60000 integer level will be the next stop. 5. Trading strategy. The BTC short position that has already been held, with a planned target of 60000 profit taking, is neither urgent nor impatient. If the price continues to decline, 59800-61200 is the first target area. After arrival, take profit of 30-50% according to the plan. If there is a blocked signal when rebounding to 62800-64200, open empty again and target 55000. 6. The final reminder. The direction has been set - interest rate cuts are gone, interest rate hikes are on the way, the dot matrix is gone. Walsh tells the market in 130 words: The Federal Reserve is no longer your 'policy put option'. The bearish sentiment has just begun to be priced. 60000 is the first stop, not the final destination. Bitcoin BTC 3D Integrated Trading Analysis