DC大于C
DC大于C|Jun 18, 2026 08:13
What Guilin Brother said is, Guan Guan is sad, Guan Guan has passed. But don't be afraid of the so-called expectation of interest rate hikes. I have reviewed the progress of the interest rate meeting and the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran in the early hours of next morning. Overall, there should be a balance between neutrality and a small eagle, and five working groups should be established. After all, the Federal Reserve is currently looking at the inflation data for April and May that has already appeared, and the inflation data itself is not good, which hawks can understand. With the current electronic signing of the US Iran memorandum of understanding, oil prices have fallen below 75 and will not be reflected in inflation data until next month. This signing can be considered as a hedge against the interest rate meeting. The inflation data released in July and August will further alleviate the pressure, so interest rate expectations will naturally need to be repriced. So don't be afraid of the expectation of interest rate hikes. Walsh himself also said that inflation is somewhat related to geography. After a morning decline, the US stock market has now slightly rebounded, and the market is still fluctuating above 63. There are also five working groups to be established by Walsh for the actions after the midterm elections, which will be discussed later. It's still early. There may be more changes at that time. There are already many changes in the world itself. Isn't it? It still depends on the progress of the US Iran agreement. Personally, I think even if there are fluctuations, the pricing of oil prices will not jump too much. There are several ranges: The pre war WTI oil price level was below 68, and the lowest level since the geopolitical conflict was around 78 in April, which was the first negotiation. This is the second time, so it has fallen below 75. In May, it remained above 88 and the highest was close to 110 Even if there are changes in the future, the fluctuation of oil prices may not rise to the 85-90 range. We can closely monitor the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which can alleviate inflationary pressure. At least not as high as the oil prices in April and May, and in the medium and long term, oil prices are likely to return to below 70. As long as the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran can alleviate the fundamental problem of inflation, then the risk market (US stock market+big cake) will have a great opportunity for fluctuations. Still holding the oil price order. The volatility of the big pie is really not enough, and the liquidity of the US stock market is better. The tracking of funds and opportunities for market fluctuations still depend on macro expectations and market speculation
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