On the evening of Tuesday, the 16th, when I was chatting with 168X about Walsh, it didn't go as planned and Eagle got slapped in the face? However, the logic discussed at that time is still worth looking at. There were many topics discussed that day, and here are a few key points to summarize: 1. The signing of the ceasefire memorandum between the United States and Iran may reset three macro logics, as discussed here on Monday https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2066324061828088265? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A 2. The pace of Walsh's policies has a greater impact on the market than policy proposals, and the midterm elections serve as a watershed. Previously, it was highly likely that the current pace would continue and not raise interest rates within the year would be the benchmark, continuing to unbind RMP and SLR. The scale reduction and mechanism reform he advocates will be implemented and promoted next year after the midterm elections (he announced the establishment of five working groups at today's press conference, and the conclusion given at the end of the year is probably at this pace); 3. Trump's signing of the armistice memorandum is the best solution at the moment. It seems that he lost face and confidence, but it is also a timely stop loss and return to domestic affairs from the quagmire. The 'World Cup effect' in the labor market, with non farm payroll exceeding expectations in May, has led to offline consumer service industries reserving workers in advance for the consumption wave during the World Cup period. It depends on whether non farm employment will decline after the World Cup. 4. As we have been discussing before, the current market logic is based on the growth rate of ARR and big technology cloud business of large model manufacturers. Their unexpected growth means that AI commercialization or monetization will accelerate after the turning point. Therefore, the capital expenditure of big technology and the transmission logic of the computing power industry chain are reasonable. This is the cornerstone or pillar of the market's logic, as discussed in the long article on the capital expenditure war in February. So, in the future, we will closely monitor whether this logical foundation can be maintained continuously without any problems. 5. The real risk in the market lies in crowded trading and slightly excessive leverage. The leverage scale of US stock securities accounts is $1.3 trillion, reaching a historical high. This actually poses risks and hidden dangers, and there will be a deleveraging market similar to that in early June in the second half of the year. The market is in a state of high leverage and crowded trading, and even slight fluctuations in macro and industrial factors can easily lead to a rapid decline, such as stampede and deleveraging. 6. The investment in the AI computing power industry chain has entered the second stage, transitioning from mindless buying in the industry chain to focusing on the rhythm of performance realization. Yesterday here https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/2067073930503114946? We have a detailed discussion on s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A. Why is storage the most certain option? From training to reasoning, to the increasing demand for data by agents, the storage has a high degree of certainty. At the same time, the high concentration and huge market capacity of the storage industry are divided among several companies. Other industrial chains are actually very fragmented, with multiple links and companies in each chain. Of course, it is not necessarily bad, but there is also room for future development, You can refer to the written records of the conversation at that time for more details. Welcome to communicate and provide guidance