貝格先生🐢
貝格先生🐢|Jun 18, 2026 01:56
Accelerating fundraising: Waiting for the dawn of the end of the bear market Continuing the quote below, today I plan to share with you the latest data on the proportion of 1y-3y chips. I believe Berg's old friends all know the usage of this set of data: The core value of data itself is to 'evaluate bull tops/bear bottoms', and it can also be used to monitor' bull and bear progress bars'. As the previous price fell below 60K, the attraction of smart money also accelerated .. : // The indicator in the attached figure is the proportion of market participants holding chips for 1-3 years, As usual, before starting the main text, let me help you review the concept of this indicator : ➡️ Grouping BTC chip holders based on 'holding time' ➡️ Capture chip holders with a holding time between 1y and 3y ➡️ Calculate the proportion of these people in the entire market ➡️ The lower the proportion, the fewer people in this ethnic group, usually caused by selling ➡️ The proportion has bottomed out (distribution completed), corresponding to the bull market peak of BTC ➡️ Peak in proportion (completed fundraising), corresponding to the bear market bottom of BTC As a cyclical indicator, the recent accurate performance is summarized as follows: In mid February 2025, the proportion will bottom out, and BTC will also peak simultaneously Starting from April 2025, the proportion will begin to flatten In early October 2025, the proportion will break away from "flattening" and begin to rise again For a more detailed and complete concept of indicators, please refer to the following link : Risk warning posts released in October 2025 (with an increasing proportion) https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/1981535929342054585 // In the last analysis post (quoted below), I mentioned to everyone: The proportion corresponding to the end of a bear market is generally between 0.35 and 0.6. As shown in the attached figure: On the day BTC broke through 60K in early June, there was a rapid increase in the proportion of 1y-3y, The latest proportion has reached 0.259. In other words, as I previously assessed: Below 60K is basically the bottom buying zone of the deep bear valuation model. From the perspective of cyclical trading, Under 60K, in the long run, it is a sweet area worth buying in spot goods. The first glimmer of hope: PSIP bear market bottom signal begins to emerge https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2063800180227588374 And the data shared today precisely confirms that 'it's not just me who thinks this way', On the day when the "1y-3y Smart Money Group" fell below 60K, their fundraising efforts also accelerated, This basically indicates that our judgment in the BTC cycle (general direction) is not significantly biased. Although the current proportion (0.259) is still a short distance away, But the rapid increase in proportion at least indicates that the bear market process is accelerating, For us who are ready to make every effort to buy the bottom, it is an absolute positive signal The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone // Related reading resources BTC Crowdfunding Trend Rating Update: Oversold Rebound Caused by Re Crowdfunding https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2066700863926940034 Liq analysis of small-scale oscillatory structures: new liquidity is gradually gathering https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2066337559052173370 Continuing the discussion on RUP: Why is it said that we are not far from the bottom of the bear https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2064888551414915362
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