Summary from last night: Last night, the Fed didn’t go for a 'dovish pause,' but rather a hawkish pause. Key points: 1. Interest rates unchanged The FOMC unanimously voted 12-0 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. 2. Inflation is back in focus The statement mentioned inflation remains above the 2% target, partly due to supply shocks, especially energy price pressures. The SEP significantly raised the inflation forecast for 2026: • PCE: 2.7% → 3.6% • Core PCE: 2.7% → 3.3% 3. The economy isn’t bad enough to justify rate cuts yet The Fed believes the economy is still expanding at a 'solid pace,' employment is keeping up with labor force growth, and the unemployment rate hasn’t changed much. The 2026 GDP forecast was slightly revised down to 2.2%, but it’s not a recession scenario. 4. Dot plot is noticeably more hawkish The median federal funds rate for the end of 2026 was raised to 3.8%, compared to 3.4% in March. This means: • Rate cuts this year are basically off the table • Half of the committee members even think another hike might be needed this year 5. Middle East/energy risks included in the statement This time, the Fed specifically mentioned uncertainties from the Middle East conflict and energy supply shocks, signaling they won’t simply dismiss rising oil prices as a 'one-off factor.' Market interpretation: Short-term, this isn’t great for risk assets. This isn’t a signal of 'just wait a few months for rate cuts,' but rather 'inflation risks are back, and the Fed wants to keep the option to hike again.' For crypto, unless oil prices drop, CPI/PCE cools quickly, or other factors shift, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will continue to pressure high-beta assets like $BTC and $ETH.