[Analyst: Core of Fed Rate Meeting Lies Beyond Rate Decision, Dollar Index 99.50 Seen as Key 'Watershed'] Jin10 Data, June 18 – Analyst Matthew Weller believes that the first Federal Reserve meeting chaired by FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to keep rates unchanged. However, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the 'dot plot,' and the content of the press conference may significantly reshape market expectations for the future rate path. Traders and economists generally expect the Fed to maintain rates in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Warsh's responses during the press conference regarding central bank independence and communication strategies are expected to have a more lasting impact on the market. The Dollar Index (DXY) at 99.50 is seen as a key 'watershed,' potentially determining the technical trend of the dollar this week and over the longer term. If the Fed leaves the door open for rate hikes later this year and Warsh emphasizes FOMC independence, the Dollar Index could quickly rebound to a one-year high near 100.50. Conversely, more cautious Fed projections and ambiguous statements from the new chair on the issue of central bank independence could pressure the dollar, with a break below 99.50 likely bringing the 50-day moving average closer to 99.00.