Fidelity warns: Walsh welcomes first major exam of Federal Reserve chairman, bond market volatility may be triggered According to BlockBeats, on June 17th, as the Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision, multiple analysts from Fidelity Investments stated that the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's first important appearance after the meeting may become a key factor triggering market volatility, especially in the bond market. Julian Potenza, fixed income investment manager at Fidelity, stated that Warsh's communication style will directly affect market reactions after investors digest policy statements and economic forecast summaries. He said, 'Currently, almost no one expects the Federal Reserve to take actual action, but there is still room for volatility in the market as it is unclear how Warsh will express his views.'. It is not uncommon for the market to 'test' after the new chairman takes office. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain a policy interest rate range of 3.5% to 3.75%, while shifting towards a more neutral stance in its statement language, ending the continued easing trend since the start of interest rate cuts in 2024. Some officials may release more tightening signals through quarterly "dot charts" due to high inflation, suggesting the possibility of interest rate hikes in 2026 or even 2027. The US treasury bond bond market with a scale of US $31 trillion has continued to fluctuate recently. Against the backdrop of the Iran War pushing up oil prices, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen from less than 4% before the conflict to over 4.4%. The pricing of the interest rate swap market has also shifted, and the previous expectation of interest rate cuts has been revised. Currently, there is a probability of about 80% betting on a 25 basis point interest rate hike within the year. David DeBiase, fixed income investment manager at Fidelity, stated that the core divergence in the current market lies in Warsh's policy stance. He said, 'What we are discussing is whether we will see the hawkish version of Warsh from 10 years ago or the more moderate version today.'. DeBiase also stated that it is crucial for Warsh to articulate its understanding of inflation. He mentioned that during the nomination confirmation process, Warsh talked about "truncated mean inflation" and the inflation relief effect brought by AI. The market hopes to further understand the basis of these views and the formation process of their judgments. (Golden Ten)