Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|6月 17, 2026 08:11
My strategy for SPCX: One more, one empty Let's start with the conclusion. Before being included in the Nasdaq on July 7th, I was a bit bullish. After that, I will start laying out the Put that expires in December 2026. Because I think SpaceX is currently trading: low flow overall+index inclusion+option opening+retail FOMO. This is a typical emotional cycle. Tuesday is the first day of opening for SPCX options. The familiar feeling has returned. High FDV Low Float A small amount of money can drive a large market value. Various funds began to rush in crazily to buy Call. Retail investors buy short-term options like lottery tickets. On June 18th, the call IV of 300 was directly purchased at around 300%. Then market makers were forced to buy underlying stocks to hedge against delta. Buy Call → Market maker buys regular stock → Stock price rises → Call becomes more valuable → More people are chasing Call → Market makers continue to buy. Gamma squeeze。 The current driving force behind the rise of SPCX is a combination of capital flow, option chain, market sentiment, and low flow. Why did I have more before July? Because there is still a pile of passive funds ahead. June 18th: CRSP+FTSE Russell included. June 26th: MSCI included. July 6th: Inclusion in NASDAQ 100. These index funds are not bought based on valuation. They must be bought. If SPCX breaks through $225, I think the market will start to go crazy. A market value of $300, which is equivalent to $4 trillion, is very likely to be achieved. But why did I start selling in July and August? Because I think I have seen this script too many times. After the lifting of the ban, there are more and more circulating stocks, and early investors are beginning to cash in profits. The selling pressure may far exceed the newly added buying orders. Now 5% of the circulation plate. 10 billion US dollars in funds, It may be able to pull out hundreds of billions of dollars in market value. 50% to 60% of the circulation in the future. Similarly, 10 billion US dollars, Maybe not even a decent bullish candlestick can be pulled out. This is determined by the market structure. If encountering a negative Gamma environment again, the hedging direction of market makers will shift from pushing up to helping down, amplifying the decline. So my trading strategy is simple: Long sentiment before July 7th. If it breaks through 225, I think the market has a chance to rush towards 300. Even extreme scenarios may occur. Starting from July. I will gradually lay out the Put that expires in December 2026. I'm unlikely to get this Put due. I may start cashing out in October or November. If you really want to invest in SpaceX for the long term, I think you can wait for a year instead. Let the market go through a frenzy first, then a disappointment, and finally enter a long period of consolidation. Because true big stocks are not born on the day of IPO, but only begin to belong to their true era after everyone loses interest.
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