Prospect of Walsh's debut: Dot chart may usher in a hawkish turn, weakening of forward guidance may exacerbate market volatility According to a report by Golden Finance, on June 17th, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2:00 am Beijing time on Thursday. Half an hour later, the new chairman Kevin Warsh will hold his first press conference after taking office, and the market has fully priced the meeting to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged. The focus of market attention is not simply on interest rate adjustments, but on three core themes: lattice variables and the path of interest rates within the year, controversy over the independence of Federal Reserve policies, and comprehensive reform of the central bank communication system advocated by Walsh. The opinions of various market analysts are significantly divergent. The market expects a clear hawkish shift in the upcoming quarterly Economic Forecast Summary (SEP) pie chart, in stark contrast to the March meeting three months ago. In March, the vast majority of Federal Reserve officials predicted a rate cut within the year. Most policy makers are expected to maintain interest rates unchanged throughout the year, and a few members may mark interest rate hikes in the dot matrix to prevent inflation from continuing to rise and solidify. The continuous changes in employment and inflation data have completely reversed the direction of the committee's discussion. Previously, the focus of FOMC debate was when to cut interest rates, but now the issue has shifted to whether to restart interest rate hikes. This dot plot will update economic expectations synchronously. Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist at JPMorgan, predicts that Federal Reserve officials will lower their year-end unemployment rate estimate to 4.3%, which is consistent with the actual unemployment rate over the past three months; At the same time, the core PCE inflation expectation has been raised to 2.9%, and some economists even expect this indicator to exceed 3%, providing fundamental support for hawkish expectations. Prior to taking office, Walsh repeatedly criticized the current communication framework in congressional hearings and IMF speeches, believing that the Federal Reserve's excessive disclosure of its policy roadmap and frequent public speeches by officials could easily bind the central bank to its own rhetoric, leading to a loss of adjustment flexibility in the face of changes in the economic environment. Policy makers would become 'prisoners of their own opinions'. Previously, Bernanke proposed that 98% of monetary policy relies on communication and 2% relies on operation, while Walsh hopes to completely rewrite this model. The core idea is to significantly reduce market forward guidance and compress the scale of public information disclosure. Yale University professor and former FOMC secretary William English warns that there are significant risks associated with a significant contraction in communication mechanisms, and a rapid decline in transparency could exacerbate financial market volatility, with policy adjustments easily exceeding market expectations.