Aaron Dishner|Jun 17, 2026 03:28
Bitcoin closed down 0.99% on Tuesday and rejected again at the TBO fast line, but the broader market did not treat that as a clean risk-off signal. BTC is still moving inside a valid bear-flag structure until it proves otherwise, with support around 63,715 today and roughly 64,113 tomorrow. The Monday high also lined up almost perfectly with the short-term 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, so I’m still looking for BTC to either confirm the bear flag with a support retest or invalidate it by closing back inside the daily TBO cloud.
Ethereum printed a doji at the top of its bounce and still did not close inside the daily TBO cloud, which keeps the chart strong bearish for me even though the short-term move has been stubborn. Stablecoin dominance is stuck inside the cloud, Bitcoin dominance is falling, and that is why alts can keep catching a bid even while BTC looks rejected. TOTALS, TOTAL50, TOTAL100, and OTHERS all show the same tension: there is real alt strength showing up, but the bigger daily and weekly crypto structure still has not fully flipped bullish.
TradFi was mostly a nothing-burger day, but the dollar, euro, yen, S&P, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Nikkei, oil, gold, silver, and PAXG/BTC all still matter because the macro backdrop can keep pressuring risk assets. In my picks, HYPE, WLD, AERO, and SPX6900 are showing powerful but potentially late-stage breakout behavior, while UNI and CAKE point to a possible DeFi rally and several other names are flashing either early bullish reversals or red-flag rejection setups. Your picks and stocks had plenty of movement too, including TRIA, HNT, TSLA, DDD, AMC, OKTA, SLNH, ASTS, DEFT, SNDK, IREN, and AMZN, but the main takeaway is the same: don’t chase every green candle; wait for clean pullbacks, fast-line retests, and gap/fib levels that actually make sense.
CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 BTC rejects at the TBO fast line but the bear flag is still valid
03:30 BTC Fibonacci levels and Ethereum’s doji rejection
07:04 Stablecoin dominance, alt dominance, TOTALS, TOTAL50, TOTAL100, and OTHERS
14:42 TradFi check: DXY, EURUSD, USDJPY, S&P, SPX, NASDAQ, Nvidia, VIX, and Nikkei
21:58 Oil, gold, silver, and PAXG/BTC macro signals
23:55 TBT resources, journal, Kraken prop trading, Toobit, and viewer requests
25:56 My picks overview: late breakouts, closed shorts, bullish flags, bearish flags, and red flags
27:21 HYPE, WLD, AERO, and SPX6900 breakout exhaustion watch
30:34 UNI, KAS, CAKE, NEAR, FIL, CFX, BNB, CRO, ATOM, ZRO, MYX, PYTH, FF, BEAT, VVV, H, ZEC, TAO, and AAVE
40:11 Your picks: TRIA, HNT, and short-term oversold strategy
44:49 Stock picks: TSLA, DDD, AMC, OKTA, SLNH, ASTS, DEFT, SNDK, IREN, and AMZN
51:16 Sunday deep-dive reminder and final thoughts(Aaron Dishner)
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