Phyrex|Jun 16, 2026 19:29
Today is unusually quiet. The U.S. and Iran aren’t caught up in the buzz surrounding the peace agreement. Of course, the main reason is that Trump isn’t making a fuss. Based on the agreement Iran has released so far, not only does the U.S. gain nothing, but there are even clauses resembling war reparations. Trump’s response? Just one sentence: ‘This is something the Democrats cooked up,’ and not much else. However, both Iran and the U.S. have stated they’ll jointly sign the agreement on Saturday, Beijing time.
Looking at WTI price movements, the market seems to believe the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Oil prices are currently around $75, which is the lowest price since the U.S.-Iran conflict began. Judging by the trend, the drop might happen faster than I expected. Initially, I thought it would take a month for oil prices to fall below $75, but if the signing goes smoothly on Saturday, it might happen as early as then.
Oil prices are pretty much at their limit here. The remaining downside is likely around $15, at most worth chasing one last short. Now that the oil trade is wrapping up, I suddenly feel a bit empty—unsure what to focus on next. Opportunities as clear-cut as this one with oil prices don’t come around often.
The next focus might temporarily shift back to Bitcoin. Right now, bitcoin:native is holding steady overall, still maintaining a good correlation with U.S. stocks. If the signing goes smoothly on Friday, both U.S. stocks and $BTC could see a fresh rally. Before that, though, there’s the interest rate meeting early Thursday morning. This meeting will be more significant, and I bet plenty of analysts will be watching closely to see Walsh’s debut performance.
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