金色财经|6月 16, 2026 15:16
[European Central Bank Chief Economist: Inflation Will Persist Despite U.S.-Iran Agreement]
According to a report by Golden Finance, on June 16, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that preparations must be made for inflation triggered by the Middle East conflict, which has yet to fully manifest. Despite the announcement of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have not simply returned to pre-crisis levels.
'Energy prices have remained elevated for four consecutive months, which means we can anticipate inflation rates exceeding 3% in the future,' he said. 'This will have indirect effects on food, goods, and services this year and even next year.'
Lane noted that crude oil prices are unlikely to drop significantly from the current level of $80 to $81 per barrel and described the forward curve as 'essentially flat over the next few years.' He added, 'Based on market pricing, we are not expecting a sharp return to pre-war levels. However, we also do not foresee prices reaching the much higher levels we had previously envisioned under adverse or severe scenarios.'
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