土澳大狮兄BroLeon | Crypto | AI | Stocks|6月 16, 2026 13:12
Added some HOOD to the warehouse
The logic is as follows:
Robinhood's Q1 2026 forecast market related revenue (referred to as "other transaction revenue" in the financial report) is approximately $147 million, a year-on-year increase of 320%, corresponding to a total net revenue of 1.07 billion in Q1, accounting for approximately 14%.
But this requires giving Kalshi money, and before the World Cup on June 4th, they switched to using their own Rothera to predict the market, so there is no need to give money. If they catch up with the World Cup and increase their volume, their gross profit will inevitably increase.
The data for June (early July) → the end of the World Cup (7/19) → Q2 financial report (8/5) is a continuous catalytic chain. At present, the estimated annualized earnings for Robinhood in the market are 586 million. If the actual effect exceeds this, then the current stock price is not expensive and there will be another wave.
Today, during the layoffs, the company made a valuable statement: "The company said that the average daily trading volume from June to the present is at record levels in the stock, options, and forecasting markets." Therefore, it can be considered as indirectly affirming that the World Cup has brought unprecedented returns to their forecasting market products, which is much more valuable than the layoffs themselves.
So I think before the final results are released on August 5th, the market is more likely to speculate in a positive direction.
Adding a bit of space as a recognition of the certainty of today's news, and then looking at future pending orders to see if FOMC picks up some bargains.
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