Today, Lao Hei's affiliated address is secretly buying HYPE again, which indirectly pushes up the HYPE's pre impact high. Of course, @ CryptoHayes still hasn't admitted it, but it doesn't matter anymore. Everyone knows that his mouth and body are not quite consistent. I dug up several reasons he gave when clearing HYPE on June 4th, and now I'll see if they still hold true. The four reasons he gave (tweet+long article from Reality Test on June 9th): 1. The Iran War and inventory rebuilding have pushed up energy prices, creating headwinds for risky assets such as counterfeit goods 2. There are three major AI IPOs from now until early Q3, which may divert liquidity from crypto to the stock market 3. Predict that Trump will shift towards an anti AI stance for the midterm elections http://4.AI Absorbing a large amount of newly added US dollar liquidity, which is the core reason for BTC's stagnant rise; He expects crypto to peak before September. Let me break it down one by one: Reason 1 (Energy) - Basic failure, and it just collapsed in the past two days. On June 16th, crude oil fell to about $80, a drop of nearly 23% in the past month, as the US reached a peace agreement with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen this weekend, and the US will lift its blockade on Iranian ports. Reason 2 (AI IPO pumping) - It has actually turned positive for HYPE. SpaceX's IPO is indeed happening, but it did not draw liquidity from Hyperliquid. Instead, SPCX's perpetual trading volume on Hyperliquid exceeded $233 million, becoming the platform's incremental trading and repurchase fuel. Reason 3 (Trump's anti AI/midterm elections) - Pure political prediction, unfulfilled and cannot be falsified. The midterm elections are until November, and there are currently no signs, which is an open proposition hanging. Reason 4 (Crypto peaked before September) - It has not been counterfeited yet, but Bitcoin has rebounded strongly and cannot be confirmed at present. So in the short term, half of his reasons have already expired, while the other half is still early. So I have been slowly accepting HYPE, spot and contract together, but unfortunately this time the stay time below 60 is too short, and the efficiency of fixed investment is too low to buy enough. But without hindering logical verification, it should be noted that the returns of AQA v2 will not begin to accumulate until August 26th, and the first entry into the aid fund will be on October 3rd, both of which are positive news waiting to be fermented. If it falls again in the future, it will be better to buy again. Let's see if we can break through the high pressure level this time.