灯塔说
灯塔说|6月 16, 2026 05:03
Review of the crypto market: The fundamentals affect the BTC and ETH market, and today's pullback confirms whether it is a real or fake pullback Yesterday, BTC broke through the 64K platform and rose to 67200 before rebounding, while Ethereum directly broke through 1800 The main reason for the increase is still due to the expectation of a temporary agreement/ceasefire between the US and Iran, which has driven the repair of global risk appetite. The decline in oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar have also eased some inflationary and geopolitical pressure. In terms of funding BTC ETF has been experiencing fluctuations recently, with a net inflow of approximately $85.9 million on June 12th, but a net outflow of approximately $131.2 million on June 15th. On June 15th, the ETH ETF had only a small net inflow of approximately $4.9 million, which had limited impact on the trend. So the rebound here is still driven by fundamental expectations, which have led to short covering, not a major positive direction for capital inflows. Technically speaking: The stability of this rebound after the rally depends on whether the support here will continue to rise after this healthy rebound or a false breakthrough. BTC Currently around 65.7K, the intraday high reached 67.2K before falling back. After rebounding from the low point of 58.5K, BTC has broken through the 64.5K-65K structural level, with an upward breakthrough at the 4H level. The short-term structure has significantly strengthened compared to the previous days. But the daily chart has not completely reversed yet, and it is still seen as a rebound repair after a sharp decline. The core position today is 65.5K-65K. If we hold on here, yesterday's rise can be seen as a healthy rebound after the breakthrough, and there is still a chance to test 67.2K and 68K in the future. If 1H/4H falls back and falls below 65K, yesterday's wave will be more like a false breakthrough after the news surface rose, and the rebound quality will significantly deteriorate. ETH Currently around 1770, the intraday high reached 1846 and then fell back. ETH had greater elasticity yesterday, but its funding level was confirmed to be weaker than BTC, so today it is even more important to look back and accept. The short-term key position is between 1750-1720. As long as we hold on, we can still watch the secondary test above 1800; If it falls back below 1720, it means that there was more short covering yesterday, and it is easy to cover up to 1700 or 1680 later. In summary, the positive expectations of Meiyili from the previous two days are still driving the upward trend, but it is not blindly chasing after more. Today's retracement shows BTC at 65.5K-65K and ETH at 1750-1720. Guarding means a healthy comeback, and there are still opportunities to continue attacking in the future; If you can't hold on, you need to prevent false breakthroughs and make up for them. BTC BTC
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