Art of Speculation|Jun 16, 2026 04:02
Let's talk about today's option structure - the Gamma Wall of 7600 and the breakthrough of HOOD
First, let's talk about the Gamma structure of the market
After filtering out options that expire on the same day, the largest Gamma exposure of the S&P 500 this week is concentrated at 7600 points.
After jumping short and opening high today, the market has significantly approached this position. The operating logic of Gamma Wall is that the closer the price is, the stronger the market maker's hedging buying, forming a magnetic attraction effect. From the current position, the probability of reaching 7600 in the next few trading days is quite high.
VIX needs to add a detail. The monthly VIX option will expire on Wednesday morning, and there is currently a negative Gamma concentration zone near the exercise price at 15-16 pm. VIX may continue to break through 16, but the downward space is limited, and the weekly bottom support is around 15 to 15.5.
These two signals combined indicate that the short-term upward trend of the market towards 7600 is relatively smooth, but attention should be paid to possible fluctuations before and after the expiration of the VIX on Wednesday.
Then let's talk about HOOD, which is quite interesting
Robinhood rose 5.36% again today, closing at $98.15 and touching the $100 integer mark during trading.
This is a structural long-term breakthrough. The stock price has successfully broken through the bottom horizontal consolidation range that has been maintained for several months. A price above $95 is now an effective breakthrough, which used to be a suppression but has now become support.
What information does the option flow tell. The largest Gamma exposure today was at $100, but there were 30000 to 40000 large call options traded between $100 and $130, concentrated at exercise prices of 105, 110, 120, and 130. This indicates that the institution is actively betting on larger breakthroughs.
In terms of operation, the ideal situation is to wait for the stock price to fluctuate sideways around $100 for a few days, allowing time for the moving average to recover upwards. If a new support platform can be built between $90 and $100, it is reasonable to expect the market to start sprinting towards $110 or even $120 in mid July.
If Warsh's FOMC conference tonight is dovish, the fintech sector is one of the most directly benefiting sectors, and HOOD will have great flexibility in this situation.
Today's summary mentioned the Sofi confirm opendoor, and I would like to add a hood. I have shared it before and explained the logic of buying, which is that the trading volume of AI's fierce bull market will increase in the later stage, benefiting securities firms. I am not too worried about its correlation with crypto. Those interested can take a look at my previous article analyzing hood, which analyzed the mid-term target of 120 and 160.
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