On June 18th, the FOMC debut scenario of Walsh and its impact on Bitcoin prices! How to translate On the early morning of June 18th (Thursday) Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce the resolution of its June interest rate meeting. This is the first FOMC meeting since Kevin Walsh took office as chairman, and also the first monetary policy statement since the end of the Powell era. The interest rate will definitely not move - the probability of market pricing remaining unchanged is as high as 98.5%. The real highlights are in three places: the dot matrix, the wording changes in the policy statement, and every sentence at the Walsh press conference. 1、 The interest rate resolution itself: Hold it still, no suspense The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 98.5%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 1.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates is close to zero. increase interest? Impossible. In May, the non farm payroll was 172000 yuan and the CPI exceeded 4%, but the core CPI was only 0.2% month on month. The rise in oil prices is a supply side shock, and raising interest rates may actually trigger stagflation risks. Cut interest rates? Even less likely. There is no reason to cut interest rates as inflation continues to rise and employment data exceeds expectations. Personal conclusion: Keep it unchanged, there is no second possibility. 2、 The real highlight one: Policy statement - with a high probability of removing the "loose tendency" Three FOMC members have already voted against the dovish bias in the statement at the April FOMC meeting, marking the most severe internal rift in 34 years. In May, the non farm payroll exceeded expectations and the CPI broke 4%. Continuing to maintain the "interest rate cut tendency" has no macro basis. Since 2025, the Federal Reserve has kept the phrase 'the extent and timing of further interest rate adjustments' in its statements, implying the possibility of future rate cuts. This time it is highly likely to be deleted and instead emphasize that 'future policies depend entirely on subsequent data'. What does this mean? The Federal Reserve no longer implies that the next step is to cut interest rates, but instead puts both "rate hikes" and "rate cuts" on the table. For the market, this is not a dovish movement, but a hawkish shift. Personal judgment: The probability of removing loose tendencies exceeds 90%. 3、 The real highlight 2: Dot Chart - The qualitative change from "interest rate reduction" to "interest rate unchanged" The median expectation for the March pie chart is to cut interest rates once in 2026 and once again in 2027. But now the market pricing is completely different: CME FedWatch data shows that the market's pricing for a rate cut in 2026 has returned to zero, and the probability of raising interest rates by at least 25 basis points before the end of the year has risen to about 70%. The bond market is also taking early action - the yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds has soared to over 4%, significantly higher than the upper limit of policy interest rates. The market is using practical actions to express that "policy is too loose". I personally expect that the median interest rate for 2026 in the June dot matrix will change from "cutting interest rates once" to "keeping interest rates unchanged", and there may even be early signals of interest rate hike expectations. Three scenarios for deduction: Scenario 1: Change the dot matrix to "2026 interest rate unchanged" (probability 60%) Meets market expectations, but the expectations themselves are skewed towards eagles. If the dot matrix chart confirms that there will be no interest rate cuts within the year, the market reaction should be "expected landing" rather than "all bearish sentiment". Scenario 2: Dot plot suggests a rate hike in 2026 (probability 30%) Exceeding market expectations, directly bearish. Risk assets under pressure, Bitcoin testing 62000-63000. Scenario 3: Retain interest rate cut guidance (probability 10%) Unexpected pigeon pie, but the possibility is extremely low. If it occurs, the market will briefly rebound, but Walsh's credibility will be damaged. 4、 The real highlight three: Walsh's "debut" statement Walsh's position has several key signals: Firstly, he publicly criticized the dot matrix, calling it a "tight fitting suit" that keeps the Federal Reserve locked in predictions. He may choose not to submit his own dot matrix prediction, and may even announce a timetable for abolishing the dot matrix. If this step is implemented, the market will lose its most important interest rate anchor. Secondly, he advocates redefining inflation indicators. The traditional core PCE shows inflation at 3.3%, but the "trimmed mean PCE" after removing extreme values is only 2.3%. If he emphasizes the latter, it can provide theoretical support for 'not rushing to raise interest rates'. Thirdly, he is facing ongoing pressure from Trump. On June 8th, Trump publicly stated that 'raising interest rates would be a wrong decision' and 'we should actually lower interest rates'. How to balance "political pressure" and "inflation data" for Walsh is the first test of his independence. Three scenarios for expressing opinions: Scenario 1: Neutral Eagle (probability 65%) Remove loose tendencies, change the dot matrix to interest rate unchanged, and emphasize data dependence. This is the most likely scenario, as the market has some expectations, but after the confirmation of the bullish direction, risk assets will face short-term pressure. Scenario 2: Clearly hawkish (probability 25%) The dot matrix suggests a rate hike, and Walsh bluntly states that "the option of raising interest rates has returned to the table". Exceeding expectations, directly bearish, Bitcoin may fall below 62000. Scenario 3: Unexpected Pigeon Pie (probability 10%) Retain interest rate cut guidance or imply future interest rate cuts. The possibility is extremely low, but if it happens, Bitcoin may rebound to 67000-68000. However, this will seriously damage Walsh's credibility. 5、 The impact path on the market US dollar: hawkish → strong US dollar; Pigeon bias → US dollar weakens. US stock market: The shift of the dot matrix towards unchanged interest rates means that both corporate profit growth and discount rates are under pressure. Technology stocks, especially high valuation sectors, have the highest sensitivity. Bitcoin: Triple Transmission Path—— Firstly, liquidity channels. Keeping interest rates unchanged means that the cost of financing in US dollars will not decrease, making it difficult to reduce the cost of leveraged trading. But the impact of a neutral eagle on the currency price is weaker than a clear interest rate hike. Secondly, risk preference channels. The transition of the dot plot from "interest rate reduction guidance" to "interest rate unchanged" is a transition from a "loose signal" to a "neutral signal". In history, signal fluctuations at this level have typically been accompanied by long short conversion windows for risky assets. Thirdly, narrative channels. If the market accepts Walsh's "inflation under control" narrative, the logic of "inflation hedging" for cryptocurrency assets will weaken; If the market believes that traditional inflation indicators are more reliable, the shift in the dot matrix will be seen as a "policy lag" and instead strengthen the narrative of risk aversion. The final path to take depends on the market's trust in Walsh. 6、 Trading Strategy Before the meeting (Tuesday to Wednesday): Observe around 66500 and do not open new positions. The market is waiting for the boots to hit the ground, but when the direction is unclear, keep your hands on them. If the dot plot is changed to interest rate unchanged+Walsh neutral skewed eagle (with the highest probability): expected to land, after short-term fluctuations, the medium-term direction remains unchanged - downward. If the dot matrix suggests a rate hike+Walsh clearly hawkish (small probability): directly bearish, below 64000 plus short positions. If unexpected pigeon pie (extremely low probability): rebounds to 67000-68000, it is a short position plus position area, not a long pursuit area. Target location: 60000 → 57000-58000 → 42000-45000. At this FOMC meeting, it is certain that interest rates will remain unchanged. But 'unchanged' does not mean 'dovish'. Let's wait and see what happens, and use stillness to stop it.